| Gold and euro stay coupled says rothschild { June 8 2005 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active) http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2027http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2027
Decoupling Gold And Euro? June 08 2005 - Australasian Investment Review -- (AIR)
With a gold price keen to jump on any USD weakness at a time when investors are seeing more troubles ahead for the euro, questions are being asked whether the time has come for both USD alternatives to de-couple.
Precious metals experts at Rothschild are yet to be convinced that euro and gold will give up their close trading correlation from the past years, predicting that with further weakness for the European currency but a logic assumption, the euro is likely to weigh on further advance potential for gold bullion.
At JP Morgan, where the commodities and forex team holds a long term bullish view towards gold, short term confusion reigns about the direction of gold and the euro. The price action of bullion over the last couple of days has been "interesting", the team remarks, as gold not only held over its key US$412-409/oz technical support zone, but the metal has now potentially rallied in five waves suggesting that after a pause/pullback another run higher to at least trend line resistance should be seen. This would suggest gold could possibly jump back towards US$430/oz and beyond.
The problem with this scenario, however, is that it goes against JP Morgan’s current view on the euro. The team promises to keep a close eye on gold and the FX market predicting either gold is going to come crashing down or their view on the euro is simply wrong. UBS believes the recent rally seen in gold has primarily been driven by speculative short covering on Comex. Although it is impossible to accurately gauge how many of these positions have been bought back, the broker’s precious metals experts suspect there is another 3-4 million ounces of short positions that were initiated in May and that are still vulnerable to short covering.
UBS believes there should be plenty of stop losses up to US$430-432/oz, with many likely to be positioned at US$427.50/oz, as that is the 200 day moving average for the metal.
Looking beyond the short-covering rally, the broker believes gold may struggle to hold onto levels north of US$430/oz (EUR445/oz) as physical demand is expected to slow ahead of the monsoon in India.
UBS would therefore recommend riding the rally in gold a little higher while keeping an eye for opportunities to take profits within the next week or two.
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