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Blair push euro referendum { May 16 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-682011,00.htmlhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-682011,00.html
British News
May 16, 2003
Euro
Blair in final push for euro referendum
By Philip Webster, Political Editor
Full Cabinet consultation before June 9 single currency deadline
TONY BLAIR was last night clinging to the prospect of a referendum on the euro before the next election after loosening the Treasury’s grip on future decisions about the single currency and giving the Cabinet a greater say.
He gave pro-euro ministers the opportunity to flex their muscles against the more cautious Gordon Brown by announcing a 24-day countdown to the decision on joining the single currency that will involve every Cabinet member.
The Prime Minister’s power struggle with Mr Brown over the biggest issue facing the Government now seems certain to continue right up to the next election.
Mr Brown will announce the decision on June 9, after two full-scale Cabinet discussions, preceded by head-to-head meetings between Mr Blair, Mr Brown and individual ministers, and a thorough study by ministers of all the Treasury’s background studies and Mr Brown’s assessment of the five economic tests.
Mr Brown will still conclude that the economic tests have not been passed and rule out an early referendum but the unprecedented consultation exercise gave pro-euro ministers fresh heart last night.
Close associates of the Prime Minister suggested that the new freedom given to ministers over the politics of the euro decision will give them the right to make the case for membership in a far more positive way, and to argue for a referendum in the next two years if the economic conditions change. Failing that, they will press Mr Blair to signal that a decision will come early in the next Parliament.
Mr Brown, however, clearly believes the decision taken by him and Mr Blair to open up the decision-making process will strengthen his hand.
He believes that on reading the Treasury’s assessment and the supporting studies, ministers will support his view that the tests are unlikely to be met in the foreseeable future.
The Chancellor is clearly hoping that the sheer weight of documentation prepared by the Treasury, all of which will be published, will make his assessment virtually impossible to challenge. The 18 technical studies drawn up by Treasury economists, running to some 2,500 pages in total, will be presented to Cabinet ministers to study this weekend before an initial Cabinet discussion next Thursday.
They will get the Treasury’s final assessment, thought to run to another 200 to 300 pages, on May 26, at the start of the Whitsun break, in preparation for a special Cabinet meeting on June 5 or 6. That will also consider the Government’s wider European strategy, including the growing controversy over the Convention on the Future of Europe.
The Times understands that Mr Brown and Mr Blair have already agreed that the statement will not commit the Chancellor to another assessment in the present Parliament or to setting a target date for entry in the next Parliament. Nor will a future assessment be ruled out.
However, pro-euro ministers will argue for a “road map” leading to a fresh decision as soon as possible.
Mr Brown, who wants to give the markets as much certainty as he can, does not favour this idea, although he plans to lay down a number of criteria, such as European economic reform and the state of the housing market, by which people can judge whether progress is being made before another assessment is started.
After the announcement of the timetable, Mr Brown swiftly reasserted his authority, insisting that the “long-term national economic interest” would be the decisive factor.
He said: “The Treasury makes the assessment of the five economic tests. That is what is going to be the issue in the House of Commons statement and in the debate in the country.”
Soon afterwards, however, the pro-euro John Reid, the Leader of the House of Commons, said at Westminster that the Cabinet would be free to consider wider political issues before reaching a decision.
Dr Reid said: “Of course the Cabinet and individual Cabinet members are free to take into their consideration wider aspects than just the economy.
A senior associate of the Prime Minister predicted that the broadening of the decision process would lead to a “more positive pro-euro outcome” than had been expected.
He said: “This is a pro-European government and a pro-European Cabinet. The ministers are delighted to be involved and they will be delighted to have their say.”
Another Blairite source said that the Treasury had allowed an atmosphere of mystique to surround the economics of the decision. “This is all about drawing away some of those veils.”
Iain Duncan Smith, the Tory leader, said that government infighting over the euro had now descended to the level of a pantomime.
“The Government isn’t deciding anything on the economic issues. What the Government is doing right now is trying to figure out how they can settle their differences between Gordon Brown and his faction and Tony Blair and his faction and the undecideds in the middle,” he said.
“This whole indecision is affecting everything they do and damaging the quality of life of the British people.”
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