| Weak consumer spending damps speculation of quickening inflation Original Source Link: (May no longer be active) http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a2RouoVjggwI&refer=homehttp://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a2RouoVjggwI&refer=home
U.S. Treasury Notes Rise as Retail Sales Are Short of Forecasts
April 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose after a government report showed retail sales in March rose less than forecast, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve can stick to a policy of gradually raising interest rates.
Signs of weaker consumer spending may damp speculation that inflation is quickening. Even as inflation risks are ``now tilted a little to the upside,'' Fed policy makers said ``a degree of economic slack apparently remained'' and an ``accelerated pace'' of rate increases is not necessary for the time being.
``You'd probably see yields come down a little bit'' in the event the retail sales report is weaker than expected, Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, said before the report. ``It might mean the Fed would keep raising rates for now, but would stop sooner rather than later.''
The benchmark 4 percent note due February 2015 rose about 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 11/32 as of 8:31 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 2 basis points to 4.34 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
A Commerce Department report showed retail sales rose 0.3 percent in March after rising 0.5 percent a month earlier. Sales were expected to increase 0.8 percent, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Excluding autos, sales gained 0.1 percent, less than the median 0.5 percent forecast.
Also, the Labor Department reported the weekly number of claims for first-time unemployment benefits dropped.
The retail report comes a day after Treasury 10-year notes had their biggest gain in more than two months, when minutes of the Fed's March rate meeting suggested policy makers see no need to move faster on rate increases. They may even pause in raising rates ``if the data warrants,'' according to the minutes.
Yesterday's rally pushed yields to a five-week low as minutes of the Fed's March 22 meeting eased concern the central bank may shift to half-percentage point increases in its interest- rate target rate to stem inflation after seven quarter-point boosts since June.
Last Updated: April 13, 2005 08:35 EDT
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