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Iran exaggerating nuclear progress { April 12 2006 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/12/AR2006041201466.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/12/AR2006041201466.html
Experts: Iran's Boast May Mean Little
By SALLY BUZBEE
The Associated Press
Wednesday, April 12, 2006; 3:56 PM
CAIRO, Egypt -- Iran's boast that it has joined "the club of nuclear countries" by enriching uranium may rattle the Western world. But diplomats and experts familiar with the program say Iran still is far from producing any weapons-grade material needed for bombs and may be exaggerating its own progress.
"The Iranians are deliberately trying to hype this up," David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said Wednesday.
He called the step that Iran announced with great fanfare Tuesday _ the use of 164 centrifuges to enrich small amounts of uranium _ merely a small and expected advance.
By trumpeting its successes so forcefully, Iran may be trying to apply political pressure _ aiming to convince the U.N. Security Council that its nuclear capability is so far along that no sanctions can dissuade it. The Security Council has ordered Iran to stop all enrichment by April 28, and the chief U.N. nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, heads to Iran for talks Friday to try to resolve the international standoff.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned ElBaradei on Wednesday to urge him to reinforce Western demands, and she called on the Security Council to consider "strong steps" against Iran. The United States wants sanctions because it fears Iran aims for nuclear weapons.
"This is not a question of Iran's right to civil nuclear power," she said. "This is a question of, ... the world does not believe that Iran should have the capability and the technology that could lead to a nuclear weapon."
Iran, apparently undeterred, said it would push ahead to dramatically expand its program, which it insists is only to generate electricity for peaceful purposes. It plans to install 3,000 centrifuges at one site by late 2006, then expand to 54,000 centrifuges, its deputy nuclear chief said.
Few experts question that Iran, if it made steady progress over many years, could create a sophisticated nuclear program and eventually make weapons-grade material. But the step announced Tuesday indicates it has a long way to go, most say.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency already knew that Iran was capable of, and had done, some enrichment on a smaller scale than that announced Tuesday, said Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
In addition, there is no evidence the country has brought the 164-centrifuge chain at its Natanz facility on line in any kind of sustained way, he said. A "one-shot" test may have little meaning, he said.
Thousands of centrifuges working together in "cascades" for long periods are needed to create even the low-level fuel required for a reliable electrical-generation program. Many thousands more operating at much more sophisticated levels would be needed for weapons-grade material.
But centrifuges shatter regularly and require precise engineering and maintenance _ which means "ramping up" production is difficult.
"It's a little like a sophisticated engine in a race car," Albright said. "If you develop it, you don't go out and race the next day. You have to test it. They have to do a bunch of work to demonstrate that it will work reliably."
Iran's leaders have a recent history of exaggerating their military capabilities, noted a diplomat from one of the 35 nations on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog.
Last week, the country unveiled a series of new weapons it portrayed as sophisticated and entirely Iranian-made _ including missiles invisible to radar and super-fast torpedoes. But weapons experts said it appeared much of the technology came from Russia and that Iran had exaggerated the weapons' capabilities.
Those claims were apparently made in an effort to beef up political support at home and convince the international community that Iran has ways to push back if the standoff over the nuclear issue becomes an outright confrontation.
Likewise, many diplomats at the IAEA take Iran at its word that it has started the centrifuges, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity. But they are more skeptical of claims it has produced enriched uranium at any level, the diplomat said.
There have been numerous past predictions that Iran was close to developing a nuclear bomb. The latest estimate from the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies, however, foresees that Iran could not create a bomb before the next decade.
Albright's group has suggested that Iran could move faster _ if it wanted to produce bombs _ by creating a basic small plant of 1,500 centrifuges to produce enough bomb fuel for one weapon. But the group has estimated even that would take three more years.
Many things about Iran's nuclear program are unknown, including the country's intentions, according to Albright and Cordesman. It also is unclear how reliable U.S. or other Western intelligence estimates are.
Some critics in Congress have questioned those estimates, citing the example of Iraq, where intelligence on suspected weapons of mass destruction was badly awry.
But one ominous thing is clear, Cordesman said: Iran already has the underlying technology to develop a nuclear program eventually if it wishes _ and can probably press ahead, secretly or overtly, regardless of what the world does.
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Associated Press reporters Lee Keath in Cairo and George Jahn in Vienna, Austria, contributed to this report.
© 2006 The Associated Press
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