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Kerry leading exit polls in battleground states Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a.Zw_siamjdQ&refer=homehttp://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a.Zw_siamjdQ&refer=home
Kerry Overtakes Bush in Online Futures After Exit Poll Reports
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S. presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states including Florida and Ohio.
Kerry led Bush by 18.1 percentage points in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a not-for-profit political betting system run by the University of Iowa, as of 3:40 p.m. New York time. Kerry held a 16 percentage-point lead on Intrade, an electronic betting exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com.
Ninety minutes earlier, Bush had a 3.8 percentage-point advantage over Kerry on the Iowa market and a 13.5 lead on Intrade. In Iowa, Bush futures last traded at 38.7 and Kerry was quoted at 56.8. On Intrade, Bush futures were quoted at 42, down from 57 at 2 p.m. Kerry was quoted at 58, up from 43.
Internet gossip columnist Matt Drudge posted what he said were early exit poll results from 14 states at about 2:45 p.m. Washington time showing Kerry held a lead over Bush in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Although Drudge took the numbers off his Web site about 20 minutes later, other Internet sites, including Slate.com and Wonkette.com, have similar figures.
U.S. Treasuries erased losses and the dollar pared its gain against the euro and declined against the yen after the Internet reports appeared.
The dollar fell to 106.16 against the yen at 3.37 p.m. in New York, compared with 106.46 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange dealing system. Versus the euro, the dollar traded at $1.2715 from $1.2752. The 4 1/4 percent note due August 2014 was little changed at 101 13/32 to yield 4.07 percent at 3:17 p.m. in New York, after the yield rose as high as 4.09 percent earlier.
Long Voter Lines
Bush had enjoyed leads in both the polls and futures markets until the presidential debates with Kerry. Since then, his leads in both eroded. Eight polls taken on the eve of today's voting showed the candidates either with equal support from likely voters or in a statistical tie.
Voters were lined up on sidewalks up and down the East Coast even before the polls opened. At East Hills Middle School in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, they cast 185 ballots by 8:40 a.m. local time, a pace that poll workers said is unprecedented for the suburban district. Voters waited 40 minutes in a line that was as long as 120 people at times.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat, said a ``tidal wave of voters'' nationwide is good news for Kerry. ``There is a big protest vote out there,'' he said in an interview. ``There's a big vote that is saying we want a change.'' Richardson predicted Kerry would win New Mexico by 1 percentage point and nationally by 2 percent or 3 percent.
Voting in Crawford
Bush voted in his hometown of Crawford, Texas, and told reporters gathered outside afterward, ``I believe I am going to win.'' Bush said, ``It would be nothing better for our system for the election to be conclusively over tonight. I think it's going to be me, so I can lead this country.''
Kerry spoke to about 200 volunteers and supporters at a get-out-the-vote kickoff in La Crosse, Wisconsin, a state that allows voters to register on Election Day. ``Get your neighbors out there to register and vote,'' he said before heading to Boston to cast his own vote. ``I've never seen so much energy.''
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