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Kerry lead widens with nader at 3 percent { July 31 2004 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5568072/site/newsweek/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5568072/site/newsweek/
A Baby Bounce?
Kerry’s lead over Bush widens, though not substantially. But the Democrat makes big gains by other measures
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 4:53 p.m. ET July 31, 2004July 31 - Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush (49 percent to 42 percent) in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader (3 percent), according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Kerry's acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried after Kerry's Thursday night speech gave the Democrat a ten-point lead over Bush. Three weeks ago, Kerry’s lead was three points.
Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge, including the timing of the poll. On Thursday, Kerry had just a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent), suggesting that his Friday night speech had a significant impact. Additionally, Kerry’s decision to announce his vice-presidential choice of John Edwards three weeks before the convention may have blunted the gathering’s impact. And limited coverage by the three major networks also may have hurt Kerry.
Still, Kerry and Edwards have gained ground on several key election issues. For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, as many voters strongly back Kerry as strongly back Bush (31 percent to 30 percent). In an election expected to be decided by a small number of unaffiliated voters, independents now lean toward Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent, with Nader pulling 7 percent. And voters are becoming more likely to predict a Kerry victory in November: Forty-four percent say Kerry will win vs. 43 percent who predict Bush.
Voters are deadlocked at 46 percent over who they would trust more with handling the situation in Iraq (Bush had enjoyed a 15 point lead in March). They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security, issues on which they had preferred the president by 21 points in March. This is significant because the top issues among voters are terrorism (21 percent), the economy (19 percent), Iraq (18 percent) and health care (15 percent).
Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted “to make the right decisions during an international crisis” (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). Six in 10 voters (58 percent) are dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed and, domestically, more voters believe Bush’s policies have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (33 percent) the economy. Voters also feel they would far more trust Kerry (55 percent) than Bush (32 percent) with issues pertaining to health care and Medicare.
Meanwhile, Bush’s own approval ratings continue to slip. Forty-five percent say they approve of the job the president is doing vs. 49 percent who disapprove. Three weeks ago, Bush’s approval rating was 48 percent; his high was 82 percent in the week after the September 11 attacks.
The best news the Bush campaign gets out of the NEWSWEEK poll is that Kerry’s stance on the gay marriage issue lies outside of the mainstream. Voters choose Bush’s less permissive stance on gay marriage by a wide margin (46 percent to 33 percent) as the position that best reflects their own views. However, this potential wedge issue may be tempered by the fact that voters vastly prefer Kerry’s progressive stance on stem cell research by a margin of 53 percent to 26 percent.
On the heels of a star-studded week—which featured unequivocal support for Kerry from former president Bill Clinton; Ron Reagan, the son of a beloved Republican president; rising star Barack Obama and Vietnam vet Sen. Max Cleland—the Democratic Party’s nominee now boasts stronger ratings than the president on being “personally likeable” (67 percent agree with that description of Kerry, 62 percent of the president); on being someone who cares about “someone like you” (57 percent feel this describes Kerry, 44 percent Bush); and on having “strong leadership qualities” (31 percent don’t see these in Kerry whereas 38 percent don’t see them in Bush).
With the major networks broadcasting very little of the actual convention in prime time, registered voters did not watch very much of it. Just half the voters (48 percent) said they watched at least some of the convention, with 41 percent of those who did watch walking away with a more favorable view of candidate. About a quarter (24 percent) of all viewers felt less favorable.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18 and older July 29 and July 30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
© 2004 Newsweek, Inc.
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