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100 thousand civilians died because of iraq war

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100,000 Civilians Died Because of Iraq War, Hopkins Study Says

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- About 100,000 civilians have died as a result of the war in Iraq, according to research from Johns Hopkins University. The findings are the first scientific study of the effects of war on Iraqi citizens, according to the Lancet medical journal, which is publishing the research.

The study, based on a survey comparing mortality rates in Iraq during the 15 months before and 18 months after the March 2003 invasion, found violence was the leading cause of death after the invasion. The majority of the civilian deaths were women and children, said the study, led by Hopkins' Les Roberts.

Most of the casualties occurred after the end of major hostilities in May 2003, researchers said in the study. Observations suggest that civilian deaths since the war are mostly caused by air strikes, the survey said. Two-thirds of the deaths were in the insurgent-held Sunni Muslim Iraqi city of Fallujah, the study said.

``Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths, and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths,'' Roberts said in the study.

Other estimates for civilian casualties are much lower. Iraqbodycount.com, a Web site run by researchers including University of New Hampshire professor Marc Herold, estimates that between 14,160 and 16,289 Iraqi civilians have been killed during and after the U.S.-led invasion.

Herold, author of a 2001 study on the human cost of the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan, compiles data from media groups including Fox News, the British Broadcasting Corp. and Al Jazeera, and by aid groups including the Red Cross and Human Rights Watch.

The Hopkins team's findings showed the war in Iraq more than doubled the risk of death in that nation. Overall, the risk of death was 2.5 times greater after the invasion, although the risk was 1.5 times higher if mortality around Falluja was excluded, the researchers said.

``Much of this increased mortality is a consequence of the prevailing climate of violence in the country, and many of the civilian casualties that are described were attributed to the actions of coalition forces,'' Lancet Editor Richard Horton said in a commentary accompanying the study.

The researchers interviewed Iraqi residents in 33 different areas about births and deaths and recorded cases of violent deaths. They compared deaths in the periods between January 2002 and mid-March 2003 and mid-March 2003 to mid-September 2004.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Angela Zimm in London at at azimm@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor of this story:
Mark Rohner at mrohner@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 28, 2004 12:46 EDT



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