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Pay in england grows as unemployment falls { April 16 2004 }

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   http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=494266§ion=finance

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=494266§ion=finance

Paypackets grow as unemployment falls
Fri 16 April, 2004 12:39

By Sumeet Desai and Ross Finley

LONDON (Reuters) - Pay grew at its fastest annual rate in nearly three years in the three months to February as the number of people out of work keeps falling, official data shows.

The Office for National Statistics said average earnings growth rose to 4.9 percent during the period, its fastest pace since August 2001, from a revised 4.7 percent in the three months to January.

That was below expectations but still some way above the 4.5 percent rate the Bank of England has said it is comfortable with to keep inflation on target.

"Overall the data strongly support the case for a rate hike at the May 6 Monetary Policy Committee meeting," said Adam Cole, economist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.

The BoE held rates steady this month at 4.0 percent but has already raised borrowing costs by a total of half a point since November to help keep a lid on roaring house prices and consumer debt.

But policymakers may take some comfort that the latest pickup in headline earnings growth was mainly a result of a sharp increase in bonuses in the financial sector as stock markets roared back and banks raked in massive profits.

Royal Bank of Scotland in February reported its biggest ever profit, more than six billion pounds, and investment banks and financial firms in the City of London are hiring again.

The ONS said on Friday annual earnings growth in January alone was at a 14-year high of 7.3 percent due to fat bonuses and had already slowed to 4.0 percent in February.

CLAIMANT COUNT DOWN AGAIN

The claimant count measure of unemployment fell again in the latest period, down 4,200 in March compared with a fall of 5,300 in February and versus expectations of a drop of 8,000.

That kept the jobless rate at just 2.9 percent, the lowest since 1975.

The ILO measure of unemployment fell by 33,000 in the three months to February, keeping the rate at a record low of 4.8 percent. Total employment rose to 28.33 million.

Earnings data also reinforced the view that the services sector of the economy is leading the way ahead of manufacturing, which has had a spate of disappointing output figures in recent months, despite optimism in the surveys.

Average earnings for services as a whole rose 5.2 in the three months to February, the fastest since July 2001. And private-sector services earnings grew even faster, at 5.5 percent, the most robust growth since boom times in March 2000.

Average earnings in manufacturing, by contrast, were up only 3.5 percent.

Big bonuses this year likely gave consumers further means and willingness to spend and have likely contributed to the recent re-acceleration in British house price inflation.

Brian Hilliard, economist at Societe Generale in London, said the rise in bonuses represented "real money that can be spent and particularly in the housing market."

"This factor will be one further reason for raising rates next month," he said.




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