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Job market worst since 1990 { June 17 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.nynewsday.com/business/sns-ap-jobs-outlook,0,6830832.story?coll=nyc-business-short-navigationhttp://www.nynewsday.com/business/sns-ap-jobs-outlook,0,6830832.story?coll=nyc-business-short-navigation
Job Market Worst Since Early 1990s
By TIM CIGELSKE
Associated Press Writer
June 17, 2003, 10:41 AM EDT
MILWAUKEE -- Three out of four employers expect to cut jobs or hold off on hiring this summer, contributing to the worst employment market since the early 1990s, a new survey said Tuesday.
About two-thirds of employers said they don't expect to hire any additional workers and 9 percent plan to eliminate jobs during the July-to-September quarter, according to the survey by Manpower Inc.
"Let's try not to get anyone too depressed, but the facts are the facts," said Jeffrey Joerres, chairman and chief executive officer of Manpower, which surveys 16,000 businesses for its quarterly survey.
Although 20 percent of employers in the survey said they plan to add jobs, competition for work is expected to be high. Six percent are uncertain about their employment plans.
But better-than-expected economic data released Tuesday offered some encouragement that the economy is trying to rebound. Consumer prices were flat in May as falling costs for energy products and clothing offset rising prices for medical care and lodging, surprising analysts who predicted prices would dip. Industrial production, meanwhile, posted its first increase since February.
Another report showed good news from one of the economy's few sources of power, housing construction, which jumped by 6.1 percent in May from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.73 million new units.
And, in a sign that the nation's battered manufacturing sector is turning a corner, the Federal Reserve said that production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities nudged up by 0.1 percent in May, after dropping by a sharp 0.6 percent in both March and April.
Stocks have surged for three months as investors grow increasingly confident about an economic rebound by year's end. The three main gauges -- the Dow Jones industrial average, the Nasdaq composite index and the Standard & Poor's 500 index -- are now trading at levels not seen in a year, but analysts caution that the market could see major pullbacks after advancing so quickly.
Despite the trio of reports suggesting modest improvement in the economy, stocks slipped early Tuesday as investors opted to cash in profits from Monday's big rally, underscoring traders' cautious outlook on the economy.
"It's a buyer's market right now if you're an employer," said economist Patrick Anderson, principal of Anderson Economic Group in Lansing, Mich. "Some of those who are getting a real shock are those who are emerging from college and don't have strong work skills."
Manpower, which is based in Glendale, Wis., and is the nation's largest staffing company, has conducted the survey for 27 years.
The company collected the most recent data in April during the war in Iraq and the SARS crisis, which analysts say could account for some employer pessimism.
"April has to be one of the worst months in recent history to take an outlook survey," Anderson said. "We would expect that a war would depress hiring plans."
Joerres said employers face uncertainty in this downturn because of its duration and multiple fits and starts. By contrast, the "classic" recession during the first Gulf War was followed by a relatively smooth recovery, Joerres said.
"I do think we're in uncharted waters from a labor perspective," he said.
Doug Thomas, operations manager of TemPro Staffing of Green Bay, Wis., called the job outlook for light industrial semiskilled workers, "very, very weak."
"More manufacturing is leaving than coming," Thomas said.
Art Ayre, state employment economist for Oregon, said his state has lost 8,500 manufacturing jobs in the last year, but he is expecting a slight rebound for his state and for the rest of the nation in the third quarter.
"We're still waiting for some indication that we'll achieve stability and then actually gain some growth," Ayre said.
The education and nondurable goods manufacturing sectors are facing the biggest impact, with each group's employment levels for the third quarter the lowest in 20 years, according to the survey.
Education jobs are at their lowest level in 27 years of Manpower data, with more employers expecting to cut jobs than those who are expecting to increase jobs.
Employment estimates across the United States are relatively consistent, with the South reporting slightly stronger hiring expectations and the Northeast expecting the slowest hiring pace for the third consecutive quarter.
Copyright © 2003, The Associated Press
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