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Bustamante blown recall chance { October 1 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/10/01/state1507EDT0079.DTLhttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/10/01/state1507EDT0079.DTL
Bustamante may have blown recall chance and future
BRIAN SKOLOFF, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, October 1, 2003
©2003 Associated Press
(10-01) 12:12 PDT FRESNO, Calif. (AP) --
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante may not just lose the race to replace Gov. Gray Davis if he's recalled, as the latest polls indicate, but he could also have killed his political career with his flawed campaign, analysts say.
"Whether or not the recall succeeds, Bustamante will look very vulnerable if indeed he doesn't come out first in the election," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California.
That could cost Bustamante a chance to run for governor in 2006, Jeffe said, as potential Democratic opponents in a primary election "may make something out of the fact that they stood by their governor when Bustamante did not.
"If the recall passes and if (Arnold) Schwarzenegger gets the governor's seat, do you really think Democrats will ever think about running Bustamante again when he couldn't win when it really counted the most?" Jeffe said.
Bustamante got into his current predicament first by breaking ranks with Democrats backing Davis when he entered the race as a replacement candidate after first saying he wouldn't. Then he shifted from promoting a no vote on the recall to focus more on running for governor, which also angered Davis and his supporters.
Then he's been battered by continuing accusations and court action regarding Bustamante's acceptance of millions of dollars from Indians and unions. That, analysts say, has let voters see him as a Sacramento insider with uncuttable ties to special-interest groups.
Bustamante, who's said all along he's not violating any laws, is starting to use the race card.
"No one is asking me how much money I get from the Latino community or from African-Americans, or from people in the Jewish community, or any other group," Bustamante said in an interview on the Spanish-language television network Univision.
Asked if he viewed the attacks on his acceptance of Indian money as racial discrimination, Bustamante said, "Well, that's how it is, I think, sometimes."
The latest poll by the Los Angeles Times released Tuesday night shows how Bustamante's fortunes have declined. The poll shows 56 percent of voters surveyed favoring the recall while 42 percent oppose it. That's a dramatic shift from the last Times poll, which showed support for the recall stalling, with 50 percent of voters in favor and 47 percent opposed.
Republican Schwarzenegger had support from 40 percent of likely voters in the latest poll, Bustamante had 32 percent and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock had 15 percent.
In a Sept. 12 survey by the Times, Bustamante led with 30 percent, Schwarzenegger had 25 percent and McClintock had 18 percent.
Bustamante's campaign has been in a downward spiral since his lackluster performance in the state's most widely broadcast debate on Sept. 24, experts say. It's gotten to where some say Bustamante should drop out of the race, which he said he won't do.
"I think I'm bringing something real important to this campaign and to this race," Bustamante said. "I think it would be a detriment to this whole campaign -- not mine, but the entire campaign against the recall -- if we did drop out."
Bustamante campaign officials declined comment. State Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres did not immediately return telephone calls.
Bustamante's outlook resembles that of Iraq's information minister during the final days of the war with the United States in April, said David Schecter, a government professor at California State University, Fresno.
"Bustamante's job is to blow a little smoke," he said. "He's back on his heels and on the defensive.
"For Bustamante, this thing has spiraled out of control. The fat lady is on the stage and is just about ready to sing," Schecter added, noting that Bustamante did not pick up endorsements from any of the state's newspapers this week while Schwarzenegger received nods from the San Diego Union-Tribune, Oakland Tribune and the Redding Record Searchlight.
The fund-raising episode makes Bustamante look smarmy and insincere, Schecter said. "He didn't rise to the occasion."
Larry Noble, executive director of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Responsive Politics, said Bustamante's future could be in jeopardy.
"What has to concern Bustamante at this point is what kind of reputation he comes out of this with," Noble said. "If the recall succeeds and Schwarzenegger wins, the Democrats will look long and hard at what happened and why and it may very well affect their decisions on party support in the future. There is going to be some finger-pointing."
©2003 Associated Press
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