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Profits to plunge

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   http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/25711p-24313c.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/25711p-24313c.html

AOL profits to plunge,
Merrill analyst warns

By PHYLLIS FURMAN
DAILY NEWS BUSINESS WRITER

AOL Time Warner's woes keep adding up.
The floundering media giant that's seen ads evaporate from its American Online division, could now face a steep decline in profits from its 35 million AOL subscribers, according to a report issued yesterday.

Profits from AOL subscriptions could fall 72% to $235 million over the next two years as AOL's customers switch from dial-up Internet connections to broadband service, or AOL offered over high-speed connections, said Merrill Lynch media analyst Jessica Reif.

"Our concern is that as AOL advertising hits bottom and begins to recover, AOL's subscription revenues may be hitting a peak of their own," Reif said.

Converting subscribers to broadband service could hurt AOL in two ways. The company will face fierce price pressure from rivals, and it will also be forced to pay cable companies steep fees to gain access to their systems.

"You have to assume the cable guys will take a big chunk," said Tom Wolzien, media analyst at Sanford Bernstein.

With the subscription business threatened, the pressure is on AOL to develop premium services, such as a music subscription service, that would command higher fees from customers, Reif said.

The warning about AOL's subscribers is the latest in a nonstop flood of bad news for AOL Time Warner.

Dragged down by its lumbering AOL division, the media giant's stock has sunk and its chairman, Steve Case, is on the ropes. The company also is the subject of a Justice Department probe into AOL's accounting practices.

Yesterday, shares rose 7 cents to $10.74, down from a recent high of $38.25 last November.




100b losses { January 29 2003 }
Accounting appropriate { July 18 2002 }
Aol boss sold shares
Aol discloses sec probe { July 25 2002 }
Aol exec
Aol hard to cancel { September 24 2003 }
Aol losses 1m subscribers { June 4 2003 }
Aol plans big cuts { January 10 2003 }
Aol probe continues { March 29 2003 }
Aol purchasepro fool investors { September 24 2003 }
Aol subscribers down 846 000 { July 24 2003 }
Aol time warner eliminate aol from name
Aol tw blackhole { April 29 2002 }
Aol tw sells 2bil
Case quits { January 13 2003 }
Crimimal probe { August 1 2002 }
End of 2004 loses 646 thousand subscribers { December 7 2004 }
Fbi continues aol probe
Justice investigates aol
Levin aol
More sec probing { April 22 2003 }
Oust case { September 17 2002 }
Profits to plunge
Steve case showdown { July 21 2002 }
Time warner drops aol name { October 13 2003 }
Turner fights case
Turner levin aol { June 4 2002 }
Turner retired
Turner sold 5m { February 7 2003 }
Turner take aol { September 18 2002 }
Turner un { November 20 2001 }
Unconventional { July 18 2002 }
Wheres steve case { July 19 2002 }
Wont rebound till 2004 { December 4 2002 }

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