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Brotherhood only benefactors of egypt open elections { November 8 2005 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5daa3fcc-5088-11da-bbd7-0000779e2340.htmlhttp://news.ft.com/cms/s/5daa3fcc-5088-11da-bbd7-0000779e2340.html
Egypt’s elections unlikely to dent ruling party’s majority
By William Wallis in Cairo
Published: November 8 2005 18:49 | Last updated: November 8 2005 18:49
When dust settles on the general elections that begin on Wednesday in Cairo and are spread in stages across the country over the next month, the balance of power in Egypt is unlikely to have altered much.
The ruling National Democratic Party that has traditionally acted as a dispenser of patronage and prop for President Hosni Mubarak’s autocratic rule, will still dominate parliament. Its majority of over 85 per cent may be marginally reduced.
The issue is whether a fairer contest and one more closely scrutinised at home and in Washington than any previous election in Egypt, will help re-energise politics and give impetus to political reform.
Much will depend on how much pressure Mr Mubarak himself feels under. After winning presidential elections that provided no real contest in September, he pledged to use his fifth six-year term in office to deepen democracy and, among other changes, strengthen parliament itself.
On the surface, the run-up to polling day has been freer of skulduggery than past elections marred by thuggish enforcement of the NDP’s supremacy. For the first time ballot boxes will be transparent and NGOs will monitor inside polling stations.
Room for serious abuse does still exist. Ghada Shahbandar, founder of a website monitoring the polls, says up to 30 per cent of names on the voter register are duplicates. In one Cairo constituency, NGOs have found an empty building site where 1,200 names are registered.
“During the presidential elections we noted these irregularities but none have been corrected,” she says.
Past voting habits already vastly favour the NDP. The few Egyptians who do vote, tend to choose the candidate most likely to negotiate benefits for their constituencies from the bureaucracy. These are likely to be in the ruling party.
A tour of opposition rallies as campaigns closed revealed how thin on the ground the competition is. In the short time since Mr Mubarak eased restrictions, old socialist and centrist opposition parties have struggled to regain relevance.
El Ghad, the only new officially sanctioned party representing a liberal and secular alternative to the NDP, has itself come near to collapse.
Analysts have long argued that the best way to balance the influence of Islamism in Egypt - often used by the NDP as an excuse for maintaining an authoritarian status quo - would be to allow alternative voices to flourish.
Yet recent official harassment of Ayman Nour, El Ghad’s leader and runner up in the presidential elections with 7 per cent, raises serious doubts about the regime’s commitment to competition on its own turf.
Instead, the main beneficiaries of the freer environment in the run up to Wednesday’s poll have been the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, the only organised opposition force.
The Brothers are running 120 candidates as independents. They have been able for the first time to campaign openly under the movement’s banner. Analysts believe they may win around 50 of the parliament’s 444 seats.
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