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Weapons claims untrue { November 14 2002 }

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   http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/14/international/middleeast/14PREX.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/14/international/middleeast/14PREX.html

November 14, 2002
U.S. Disputes Iraqi Denial That It Has Weapons Banned by U.N.
By DAVID E. SANGER


WASHINGTON, Nov. 13 — The White House today dismissed Saddam Hussein's contention that he possesses no weapons of mass destruction as untrue. But President Bush's advisers said they would not be taunted into revealing any intelligence they have to contradict him until after Iraq delivers a full accounting of weapons programs in early December.

While White House officials read sections of the Iraqi letter to each other with some amusement — "even the Democrats didn't call us the `gang of evil,' " one official said today — they said that they decided this afternoon to ignore the accusations and focus on the paragraph that began "So, let the inspectors come to Baghdad to carry out their duties."

Officials argued that the Iraqi leader had simply bowed to the inevitable after the Security Council's unanimous 15-to-0 vote last Friday that Iraq must disarm.

"He punched the ticket," one senior official said. "The letter is full of bombast, but he says he'll let in the inspectors. So we'll see how he performs."

Scott McClellan, the deputy White House press secretary, told reporters today that it was still the president's firm belief — as he has charged in the past — that Iraq remains in possession of chemical and biological weapons.

President Bush himself, speaking after a cabinet meeting this morning, did not specifically refer to the Iraqi letter. But White House officials said he had expected Mr. Hussein's response.

"There's no negotiations with Mr. Saddam Hussein," Mr. Bush said. "Those days are long gone. And so are the days of deceit and denial. And now it's up to him. And I want to remind you all that inspectors are there to determine whether or not Saddam Hussein is willing to disarm."

The administration's strategy of holding back on a detailed response appeared to be based on two calculations.

The first is that the American military presence in the Persian Gulf has not yet reached the dimensions that would be needed if a military confrontation with Iraq develops.

The second is that Mr. Hussein has no way of knowing what kind of intelligence American officials have about what they say is his development and stockpiling of weapons of mass destruction. As a result, White House officials say, they believe that the United States has a reasonable chance of making a case that Iraq's detailed inventory of weapons, due on Dec. 8, is deliberately false.

As soon as that inventory is delivered, American officials plan to compare it to sites they have identified from satellite photographs and other intelligence data, administration officials have said. They have already arranged to transfer that information to Hans Blix, the chief inspector for the United Nations.

The first intelligence passed to Mr. Blix will be about the sites that are most sensitive to the Iraqis, perhaps including the "presidential palaces," these officials said. Their expectation is that Mr. Hussein will be provoked into blocking an inspection.

Today's Iraqi letter was filled with references to how Iraq would "take into consideration" the way inspectors conduct themselves, "the intentions of those who are ill-intentioned amongst them" and the dignity they show to Iraq's "independence."

Briefing reporters on condition of anonymity, administration officials have argued that it would only take one or two discoveries of weapons locations not on the Iraqi list to convince the United Nations Security Council that Mr. Hussein is still attempting to deceive.

Alternatively, any effort by Iraq to limit the scope of inspections would also provide a basis for a return to the Security Council, the administration officials say, or action by the United States, Britain and other allies.

The risk in the strategy, officials note, is that the inspectors may visit those sites and discover nothing.

Nonetheless, administration officials profess confidence that Mr. Hussein will make mistakes, or that new technology in the hands of inspectors will prove effective.

"There's no use being taunted into an argument now over what he's got," one senior official said. "There will be time for that next month."



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