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Humanitarian disaster { January 5 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11171-2003Jan4.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11171-2003Jan4.html
Supplies Amassed Along Frontline of Iraq's 'Other' War
As U.S. Military Prepares for Fighting, Relief Groups Mobilize to Save Lives
By Peter Baker
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, January 5, 2003; Page A12
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Sometime in the next few weeks 120 giant rubber bladders, each able to hold up to 1,320 gallons of water, are scheduled to arrive at the Baghdad offices of CARE, becoming frontline weapons in the other war -- the one to save lives.
If the United States invades Iraq, any power outages would paralyze water treatment plants. Tanker trucks that could be used to deliver water might be pressed into military service. "So we thought that by using these bladders we would transform regular trucks into tankers," explained Majeed Waleed, deputy project manager at CARE.
Water would be among the most serious concerns in the early days of any new war in Iraq, but hardly the only one, according to CARE and other humanitarian groups here. Iraq's food distribution system, dependent on U.N.-administered oil sales, likely would collapse. Hospitals, already short of medicine under U.N. sanctions, could become overwhelmed by casualties. Diarrhea and measles could spread. And hundreds of thousands of Iraqis could flee the fighting.
As more U.S. troops get orders to head for the Persian Gulf region and the Pentagon readies its battle plans, humanitarian groups are preparing for what they call a massive crisis in the making. Ruud Lubbers, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, recently declared that war "will be a disaster from a humanitarian perspective" for a country where conditions have already deteriorated dramatically during two decades of war, strife, repression and, for the past dozen years, economic sanctions.
U.N. contingency planners estimated that as many as 4.5 million to 9.5 million Iraqis could need food from outside shortly after the beginning of a war and predicted that as many as 900,000 refugees could spill into neighboring countries such as Iran, Turkey, Syria and Jordan.
Three weeks ago, U.N. relief agencies requested $37.4 million to cope with the expected crisis. Tents, blankets and medical kits have been stockpiled in places such as Amman, the Jordanian capital, to be shipped in at a moment's notice. Iran has agreed to open another border crossing where humanitarian goods could be brought in by truck.
But preparations have been hampered by political sensitivities. Humanitarian organizations, especially those run by the United Nations, feel constrained in preparing for a war that most governments still hope to avoid. Aid groups have held no all-inclusive meetings here to coordinate efforts in the event of war, and the local U.N. umbrella agency said contingency planning is being handled in New York.
At the U.N. Office of the Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, which oversees local and foreign U.N. workers in the country and shares its headquarters at the converted Canal Hotel with U.N. weapons inspectors, officials have gone out of their way to present the appearance of business as usual.
"Here we're just doing our jobs as usual," said Veronique Taveau, the spokeswoman. "You can feel it. No one is running around crazy. It's fine. There is no crisis here."
Humanitarian workers have found it difficult to secure money to prepare for a war. At the same time, they worry that visible preparations would only contribute to war fever.
"What world do we live in where humanitarians are the biggest warmongers?" asked Marcus J. Dolder, head of the Baghdad office of the International Committee of the Red Cross. "I don't like it that humanitarians are bulking up. . . . We're very uncomfortable and we don't want to be part of the propaganda, the huge buildup. On the other hand, we have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We would be very stupid not to get ready."
Without an official crisis to respond to, he added, there are limits to what groups such as the Red Cross can do. "We can't make formal demarches for something we hope doesn't happen," he said. "We can't do that until the aggression takes place, the first minute, not even a day before. This is all very tricky."
Nonetheless, the Red Cross plans to have on hand enough medical kits to help 7,000 people injured by bombs or fighting on the first day of the war, including syringes, antibiotics, gauze, anesthetics and surgical tools. It also wants to stockpile enough tents, stoves, cooking pots and blankets to shelter 100,000 people at the beginning of any conflict.
Similarly, by ordering its annual supply in advance, UNICEF plans to have health kits for 900,000 people, including nutritional supplements and enriched milk, in an effort to keep already significant malnutrition from worsening. Both UNICEF and CARE are bringing in water bladders and compact water treatment units. CARE also is preparing relief buckets with soap, toothpaste, shampoo and more.
Moving these supplies into the country could prove problematic once fighting begins. The road from Jordan crosses the western Iraqi desert, where bombing cut off traffic during the Persian Gulf War of 1991. Humanitarians are optimistic that Iran will play a key role with two logistics bases, including new roads into the Kurdish-dominated north. However, they are pessimistic about negotiations with Turkey, which wants to seal its border during any war for fear of Kurdish refugees instigating trouble in its territory.
Another challenge for humanitarian groups is helping a population that is significantly less able to fend for itself than during the Gulf War. "There's a big difference between '91 and now," said Waleed. "In '91, people had a cushion to fall back on. Don't forget, this was a rich country. If they got married, they gave gold. They had three or four TV sets. . . . Now, of course, after 12 years anyone who ever got gold has sold it. People sold parts of their houses or sold the whole thing and moved to a cheaper area."
As a result, the planning may not match the problem. "There are 248 scenarios," said a U.N. official who asked not to be named. "Nobody has the right scenario in mind."
Humanitarian groups are most concerned about water and sanitation. As treatment facilities have deteriorated over the past decade, the amount of drinkable water available to each Iraqi has fallen by half, and disease has surged as a result. Typhoid jumped tenfold and the average Iraqi child now experiences diarrhea 14 times a year. Diarrhea is a killer here; respiratory ailments and dehydration from diarrhea account for 70 percent of deaths among children.
Cutting electricity to the remaining treatment facilities, where backup generators are often broken or nonexistent, would exacerbate the problem and expose people to greater risk of disease.
Food will also be a top concern. Iraq now feeds its 23 million people with rations under the U.N. oil-for-food program. Monthly baskets of basic foods provide each Iraqi with 20 pounds of wheat flour, 6.6 pounds of rice and 4.4 pounds of sugar, as well as tea, salt, cooking oil, baby milk, soap, detergent and cereal.
The government recently decided to provide three months of food baskets at a time so Iraqis could store enough to survive in a crisis. Yet 30 percent to 40 percent of the people depend on the rations not just for basic food but also for income, selling some of their allotment, meaning that many will not have enough in storage.
In the end, for all the planning by humanitarian groups, it may fall largely to the Iraqi government to handle the crisis, at least for a while. U.N. officials are preparing for possible evacuations of their foreign staff, and many if not most of the local workers could be drafted to fight in the army.
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
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