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Kanaan and hariri on friendly terms Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13156356.htm"He was a very powerful man in the regime. He had been on friendly terms with Hariri, so he had nothing to do with his assassination, but maybe he will be a scapegoat," Khazen said.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13156356.htm
ANALYSIS-Syria cannot evade pressure despite Kanaan's death
13 Oct 2005 13:20:57 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Alistair Lyon
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Ghazi Kanaan's death silences a man at the heart of Syria's security apparatus, but is unlikely to deflect U.S.-led pressure on Damascus or divert U.N. scrutiny of Syria over the assassination of a top Lebanese politician.
The 63-year-old Syrian interior minister, who served as feared intelligence chief in Lebanon for two decades from 1982, was being given a low-key funeral on Thursday, a day after officials said he committed suicide.
Analysts said any attempt to use Kanaan as a scapegoat over the Beirut bomb blast that killed former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri eight months ago would at best provide temporary respite to President Bashar al-Assad's isolated government.
Kanaan's death came three weeks after U.N. investigators questioned him as part of their probe into Hariri's killing. Diplomats and Lebanese political sources say they expect U.N. chief investigator Detlev Mehlis to name some Syrian officials in his report to Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Oct. 21.
"Even if Syria is 100 percent innocent in Hariri's death, the Americans and French will use the U.N. investigation to keep up the political pressure on Damascus," said Jihad al-Khazen, a London-based Lebanese journalist who recently interviewed Assad.
Assad said in a CNN interview shown on Wednesday that Syria was not involved in Hariri's death and that he could never have ordered it. However, if the United Nations concluded Syrians were involved, they would be "traitors" who would face an international court or the Syrian judicial process, he added.
For now Kanaan's death remains a mystery. In a call to a Lebanese radio station, he denied reports his testimony to the U.N. inquiry had admitted financial corruption. He said it was the "last statement" he would make -- leaving it unclear if he meant on that subject or because he knew he was about to die.
Hours later, Syrian officials said he had been found dead in his office with a gun in his hand and blood on his mouth.
Khazen, who knew Kanaan personally, said he was aggrieved at criticism of his past handling of Lebanon and "felt his world was collapsing", but never seemed a suicidal type.
"He was a very powerful man in the regime. He had been on friendly terms with Hariri, so he had nothing to do with his assassination, but maybe he will be a scapegoat," Khazen said.
FALL GUY?
Volker Perthes, a German expert on Syria, said Kanaan's death appeared to be connected to the Hariri investigation.
"I don't know if he sacrificed himself willingly or not, but it could give Assad an opportunity to deflect responsibility from himself and his in-laws," he said.
Assad's brother-in-law Asef Shawkat is military intelligence chief. His brother Maher al-Assad commands the Presidential Guard Brigade. All, like Kanaan, are from Syria's Alawite minority which dominates many levers of power in Damascus.
"I think the Syrian regime feels stronger after Kanaan's death," said Rime Allaf, at London's Chatham House, adding that Assad appeared confident Mehlis would not incriminate him.
She suggested that if any U.N. fingers pointed at Syria, Kanaan could be portrayed as a guilty man overcome by pressure who had unfortunately taken his secrets to the grave.
Nevertheless, the shock death of such a formidable figure will deepen alarm in Syria about the future, Perthes argued.
"It makes clearer to Syrians that the regime was involved in Hariri's assassination. They also know that no one could do that without people close to the president being involved."
Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said he foresaw no slow-down in the "gradual self-dismantlement" of the Syrian ruling system.
"Assad has lost the Saudis and the Egyptians, as well as the French," he said. "The Arabs may give him rhetorical support, but no active solidarity unless he really changes course."
Assad's biggest problem is with Washington, which accuses Syria of helping Iraqi insurgents, backing Palestinian and Lebanese militants and trying to block democracy in Lebanon.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to Baghdad, said last month "patience is running out with Syria".
Assad told CNN he was willing to cooperate with the United States over Iraq, but said Syria could not secure the border on its own.
"He is interested in a deal, but do the Americans really want one?" asked Perthes. "And would Bashar be able to deliver or would he continue to misread world affairs?"
The United States insists it wants "behaviour change" not regime change in Damascus, but its demands would involve Syria not just throwing a few "rogue elements" to the wolves, but discarding policies fundamental to its Arab nationalist creed.
"Maybe the Syrians will offer help on the Iraqi front and in Lebanon, but the Americans may squeeze more, on the Palestinian issue and the (Israeli-occupied) Golan Heights," Allaf said. "Syrians would not accept making concessions on the Golan."
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