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Florida and california have riskier real estate markets Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/17/risk-housing-homes-forbeslife-cx_mw_0717realestate.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/2007/07/17/risk-housing-homes-forbeslife-cx_mw_0717realestate.html
Riskiest U.S. Housing Markets
Matt Woolsey, 07.17.07, 10:00 AM ET
Those looking to spin the real estate roulette wheel might want to steer clear of Miami. It ranks first on our list of the nation's riskiest real estate markets.
There, a high share of adjustable-rate mortgages, high vacancy rates and slumping prices still too elevated for the local populous means should long-term bond yields climb, interest rates jump or the housing crisis linger much longer, things could go from bad to worse.
Affairs are not much better farther north--or west. Following in Miami's wake are Orlando, Sacramento and San Francisco.
Our ranking of the country's riskiest markets measures which of the 40 largest metros are most vulnerable to future shocks. We've done this by assessing which have the most strained lending conditions, and which markets are the most overvalued and likely to face downward price pressures.
Many of the cities on our list--like San Francisco and San Diego--are traditional high fliers where speculators can still make a lot of money if they pick the right neighborhood or hit the price trough. Of course, they might also take a serious bath. Others, like Chicago or Phoenix, are generally stable markets that are currently under significant strains. Finally, some, like Cincinnati or Kansas City, are precariously teetering and are not well equipped to handle further downturn.
Take adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, in which borrowers, for a limited time, usually five or seven years, make interest-only or reduced-rate payments. The most obvious danger in this is that at the end of the five- or seven-year term, monthly payments increase to a rate the borrower is unable to sustain. Given Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's continuing worries about inflation, economists say there's a good chance rates could go up in the next couple of years, meaning that the increased costs of lending will be passed along to ARM borrowers, and that can mean higher rates of defaults.
What's more, high ARM share generally means a market is unaffordable to its residents.
The metros with the highest shares of ARMs, according to the National Association of Realtors, are in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, respectively. These three cities are also the most overpriced, according to our price-to-earnings measure. And these areas are three of the four least affordable to the local population, according to the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo's affordability index. If rates go up or lending tightens, fewer will be able to buy in, bringing the markets to a screeching halt.
Another arbiter of risk? Cities with a high proportion of mortgages with loan-to-value ratios in excess of 90%. Loan-to-value (LTV) measures the size of the mortgage to a home's overall value. In a standard home buy, the down payment is 10% of the overall value, meaning the LTV is 90%.
When the loan-to-value ratio is above 90%, it means buyers have little equity in their homes. And homeowners with low equity are far more likely to default or walk away from a mortgage. If the market teeters and lenders take a hit from defaults, it can depress prices overall, as is currently being seen with the subprime lending fallout. For that reason, Kansas City is particularly vulnerable. It has a 39% share of mortgages with LTV ratios above 90%. The median rate for cities on our list was 11%, according to the National Association of Realtors.
We next mixed in a price-to-earnings ratio for each market. (Like the P/E of a stock, this value attempts to measure the price a homeowner would pay for one dollar of return.) Using data from the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, we took each market's median home price and divided it by annual rents minus taxes and insurance for those properties.
The price-to-earnings ratio highlights two significant risks. It magnifies risk factors in overly expensive markets in which there is more money at stake. For example, a 5% drop in median home prices in San Francisco is possible; but the nominal equivalent, a 24% price drop in Dallas, is not something the market is likely to bear. Second, overvalued bubble markets are more likely to face downward price pressures in a slumping market as overvalued markets are, by definition, most likely to experience a correction.
A final factor was vacancy rates. It's not a complicated or glamorous measurement, but it's difficult to find a better indicator of supply and demand. Orlando's staggering 5.2% vacancy rate represents a significant risk factor for the city. Strong local economic indicators like job growth and immigration significantly mitigate that risk, but it is in a vulnerable position should there be an economic slowdown or a disruptive hurricane season.
Two larger cities that performed very well by this measure were Los Angeles and New York, which ranked fourth and eighth for lowest vacancy rate. While both cities had high ARM shares and high P/Es, their low vacancy rates bode well for those markets.
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1. Miami, Fla. Due in part to escalating insurance costs, Miami produced a price-to-earnings ratio that was sixth highest. Despite a loan-to-value rating around national averages, a high vacancy rate of 3.5%, and a 43% share of adjustable rate mortgages was enough to propel Miami to the top of the list of riskiest housing markets.
2. Orlando, Fla. Its moderate price-to-earnings ratio didn't do enough to set off an astronomical vacancy rate (over 5%) and scores in the bottom third for 90%-plus loan-to-value mortgages and share of adjustable-rate mortgages. Strong local economic indicators like job growth and immigration significantly mitigate the risk, but the city is in a vulnerable position.
3. Sacramento, Calif. A high vacancy rate of 3.3%, which ranked 10th worst, the seventh highest price-to-earnings ratio despite consecutive quarters of falling prices, and a share of adjustable-rate mortgages in excess of 50% made Sacramento the riskiest investment in California. A very low number of loan-to-value ratios above 90% means the market can bear the stress of continued price drops should the local economy take time to absorb the slump.
4. San Francisco, Cailf. More than 70% of the market's residential loans over the last year were adjustable-rate mortgages, which puts San Francisco in a very vulnerable position should interest rates rise. A middle-of-the-pack vacancy rate of 2.4% is well above healthy, which means that any future price dips for the highest price-to-earnings ratio market could hurt.
5. San Diego, Calif. San Diego has the lowest share of mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 90%, which bodes well for any future price decreases, suggesting the city can stand some short term strain. Its problems are a 2.8% vacancy rate, the nation's third-highest price-to-earnings ratio despite prices not yet reaching a trough, and above-90% loan-to-value and adjustable-rate mortgage shares--among the top three in the nation.
6. Phoenix, Ariz. There isn't one poison-pill measurement for Phoenix. A high 3.1% vacancy rate hurts, but so does the 10th-worst price-to-earnings ratio, despite significant downward price pressures over the last year. Adjustable-rate mortgages rank eighth-highest of cities measured and loan-to-value ratios above 90% are in the middle of the pack. The question is whether Phoenix's labor force and local economy, which is highly tied to the building industry, can sustain a prolonged slump.
7. Kansas City, Mo. Things look dicey for Kansas City. Vacancy is above 4%, and the share of mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 90% is the worst of the cities measured. The housing market is strained and ill-equipped to handle any future price declines. At least, with its low price-to-earnings ratio, mortgage costs are little compared with what one could earn renting the property.
8. Cincinnati, Ohio The share of adjustable-rate mortgages and those with loan-to-value ratios above 90% usually have an inverse relationship. Not in Cincinnati. The city has the 5th-highest share of 90%-plus loan-to-value mortgages and, at 30%, an above-average share of adjustable-rate mortgages. This exposes the market to both price-decrease problems as well as interest-rate hikes.
9. Chicago, Ill. Chicago is a traditionally stable market, but is currently under pressure. Its 2.3% vacancy rate isn't unmanageable, nor is its price-to-earnings ratio, which is the 12th highest nationally. Chicago's problem is a very high share of adjustable-rate mortgages (45%) and a middle-of-the-road share of mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 90%. Having a high share of one is sustainable if there's a low share of the other, but in a scenario like this, both lenders and borrowers have elevated risk.
10. Denver, Colo. Vacancy is high, at 3.7%--it's the list's fifth worst, which means that the city has a ways to go before it experiences price recovery. Adjustable-rate mortgages comprise 40% of Denver's mortgages, which exposes a market that's already struggling to problems if interest rates should increase.
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