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Stocks and gold up { May 9 2006 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/markets/markets_newyork/?cnn=yeshttp://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/markets/markets_newyork/?cnn=yes
Dow inches closer to record
Blue-chip average jumps to within 85 points of its all-time high; investors await Fed meeting Wednesday.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
May 9, 2006: 6:19 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The Dow Jones industrial average surged to within 85 points of its all-time high Tuesday, thanks to a rally in General Motors shares. But Dell's profit warning and jitters about Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting weighed on the broader market.
The Dow Jones industrial average (up 55.23 to 11,639.77, Charts) rose about 0.5 percent. The gain brought the world's most widely watched stock index to within about 85 points of its record of 11,722.98, where it closed on Jan. 14, 2000.
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (up 0.48 to 1,325.14, Charts) index ended little changed. The S&P hit a more than five-year high last week. The Nasdaq composite (down 6.74 to 2,338.25, Charts) fell 0.3 percent, weighed down by Dell.
After the close, Cisco Systems (Research) reported revenue and quarterly earnings excluding items that rose from a year ago and beat estimates, initially sending shares higher in extended-hour trading. However, the shares turned negative after Cisco issued a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that is short of expectations.
Also after the close, Dow component Walt Disney (Research) reported quarterly earnings that rose from a year ago and beat estimates. Shares gained about 1 percent in extended-hours trading.
Dell's profit warning late Monday dragged down tech stocks Tuesday morning, but the impact on the broader market was minimal, with investors reluctant to move much ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting.
Oil prices spiked back near $71 a barrel and gold topped $700 an ounce for the first time in more than 25 years. However, the advance had a mixed impact on the stock market, both raising concerns about higher inflation, but also giving support to the underlying oil and gold stocks.
All in all, the stock market was hanging in quite well, considering all of these cross-currents, said Joe Sunderman, market analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. He said that technical market measures he looks at remain bullish, and that's especially the case since the Dow industrials broke out of a trading range Friday that it had been stuck in since March.
The Dow 30 could potentially make a new all-time high in the next few days, reflecting the latest leg of a bull market that has been in place for 3-1/2 years. Stocks surged in January and February of this year, but seemed to top out in March.
However, April brought new momentum and that has continued into May. Investors have responded to mostly upbeat first-quarter earnings, strong reads on the economy paired with still-moderate inflation, and bets that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking campaign is about to end.
All eyes on the Fed
The central bank, meeting Wednesday, is widely expected to boost the fed funds rate, a key overnight lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 5 percent. That would mark the 16th consecutive rate hike since the bank began its rate-hiking campaign in June 2004.
What's in question is what the bankers will do next, specifically if they hint that they may pause at the next meeting at the end of June.
"It's been pretty flat so far this week, and I think that will be the case until we get the announcement tomorrow," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management. "People are waiting to see what they say in the statement."
Kiddoo said it's unlikely the market is going to get what it's been betting on, namely, a broad hint that the Fed will pause in June.
Such bets intensified after last week's weaker-than-expected April employment report. But other underlying economic news has been strong and with the inflationary pressures of rising oil and gasoline, it's unlikely the central bank will pause as soon as June, he added.
Nonetheless, the stock market may be in a bullish enough mode to withstand some disappointment from the Fed tomorrow, Sunderman said. That is, once investors get beyond a knee-jerk reaction to the statement.
Dell, GM and other stock movers
Dell warned that first-quarter earnings will miss forecasts as a result of the PC-maker cutting prices to boost revenue growth. The company also said first-quarter revenue growth will hit the low end of its previous forecast.
Dell (down $1.23 to $25.20, Research) shares fell 4.7 percent and exerted some pressure on the broader tech sector.
Rival PC-makers Hewlett-Packard (down $0.67 to $33.12, Research) and Gateway (down $0.06 to $2.08, Research) both lost close to 2 percent.
But giving the Dow a boost was component General Motors (up $2.25 to $25.80, Research), which surged nearly 10 percent after it revised its first-quarter results to show a profit.
Gains in component McDonald's (up $0.44 to $35.83, Research) also helped the Dow. The fast-food retailer reported that sales at stores open a year or more, also known as same-store sales, rose 6.2 percent in April, topping estimates. Shares gained more than 1 percent.
Semiconductor stocks weakened after Altera (down $0.94 to $21.07, Research) said late Monday that it was delaying reporting first-quarter results as it investigated its stock option practices and accounting.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor (down 5.37 to 520.00, Charts) sector, or the SOX, fell 1 percent.
Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers and winners were narrowly mixed on volume of 1.51 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers nine to seven on volume of 1.89 billion shares.
Treasury prices slipped, boosting the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 5.13 percent from 5.11 percent late Monday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Oil and gas jump
Oil for June delivery rose 92 cents to settle at $70.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on revived international tensions over Iran's nuclear program and just ahead of an expected increase in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Oil has declined about 7 percent since last week amid news of a surprising buildup in inventories and hopes that tensions about Iran were easing. Iran is OPEC's No. 2 oil producer.
Higher oil prices can hurt market sentiment. But the run up in oil is also good for oil stocks, which gained. The Philadelphia Oil Service (up 1.85 to 233.89, Charts) index added 0.8 percent.
COMEX gold for June delivery jumped $21.60 to settle at $701.50 an ounce on concerns about Iran and a weakening of the U.S. dollar. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated gold less costly for buyers.
The rally in gold gave a boost to gold stocks and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The Amex Gold Bugs (up $17.16 to $393.28, Research) index jumped 4.6 percent.
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