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Schwarzenegger seizes early lead Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.msnbc.com/news/951060.asp?vts=081220030625http://www.msnbc.com/news/951060.asp?vts=081220030625
In an NBC poll released Monday, 31 percent of California voters said they would vote for Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Oct. 7 recall election.
Schwarzenegger seizes early lead
NBC News poll: Majority of Californians want Davis out
MSNBC
Aug. 11 Ñ Most California voters believe Gov. Gray Davis should be thrown out of office, and more of them favor actor Arnold Schwarzenegger to take his place than any of the almost 200 other candidates in the Oct. 7 recall election, according to a new NBC News survey.
THE POLL, conducted Sunday by Hart-Teeter Research of Washington, found deep unhappiness with DavisÕ leadership as California stumbles through the worst budget crisis in its history.
Nearly three-quarters of the 510 registered voters surveyed, 72 percent, felt that the state was headed down the wrong track. Fifty-nine percent said they would vote to make Davis the first U.S. governor to be recalled from office in 82 years.
The stateÕs financial turmoil, which was capped last month by passage of a budget that includes a record $38 billion deficit, triggered the campaign to recall Davis, a Democrat who won re-election in November by 5 percentage points over Republican Bill Simon, who is seeking to replace him in October.
Nearly 200 candidates have already qualified for the election, and nearly a hundred more filed papers that were still under review. Among that crowded field, Schwarzenegger, who has described himself as a moderate Republican, emerged as a clear favorite, with nearly a third of respondents saying they would likely vote for him. The winner would be the candidate with the most votes; no majority would be required.
SchwarzeneggerÕs 31 percent support was well ahead of that of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat who opposed the recall initiative but joined the race, he said, to ensure a field of qualified contenders. Bustamante drew 18 percent.
Bustamante was followed by Simon and former baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth at 6 percent, meaning three of the top four candidates were Republicans.
At this early stage of the campaign, however, a large number of voters, 26 percent, said they were still undecided. The poll reported a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
SCHWARZENEGGER VS. BUSTAMANTE
The poll reflected the high passions the recall movement has sparked. A remarkable 78 percent said they intended to vote, far above the turnout of 45 percent in the election that returned Davis to office last year.
Pollsters Peter Hart, a Democrat, and Robert Teeter, a Republican, said that SchwarzeneggerÕs support probably reflected name recognition more than anything else and that he might have a tough time picking up votes elsewhere.
ÒWeÕre not measuring Arnold,Ó Hart and Teeter said in an analysis of the data. ÒWeÕre measuring an image before we know anything about him.Ó
The results suggested that Bustamante, in particular, was positioned to run a strong campaign.
Just as many voters, 32 percent, said Schwarzenegger was not up to the job as said they would vote for him. Bustamante, by contrast, ran a strong second even though almost a quarter of voters, 23 percent, said they had not heard of him, a factor his campaign will undoubtedly work hard to change over the next two months.
For Schwarzenegger, 19 percent of voters said they were neutral, about the same as the 22 percent who said they were neutral about Bustamante. That would suggest SchwarzeneggerÕs gains must come from persuading those voters of his qualifications, while Bustamante must make himself known more widely.
While political analysts have predicted that Bustamante, the highest-ranking Latino politician in California history, would command strong support from the stateÕs heavily Democratic Latino voters, the survey showed Schwarzenegger leading Bustamante among that fast-growing sector of the electorate, 32 percent to 23 percent.
DAVIS IN THE DUMPS
While the poll numbers may give replacement candidates much to work with, for Davis they were all dismal.
Sixty-four percent said they had a somewhat or very negative opinion of the governor, compared with only 22 percent who said they felt somewhat or very favorable. A mere 15 percent thought the state was on the right track under DavisÕ guidance, and only 35 percent opposed the recall initiative.
Even 40 percent of Democrats said they would vote to recall him.
Because of the enormous number of replacement candidates, the pollsters asked about only six by name: Schwarzenegger, Bustamante, Simon, Ueberroth, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock and independent political commentator Arianna Huffington. The results:
Schwarzenegger: 31 percent
Bustamante: 18 percent
Simon: 6 percent
Ueberroth: 6 percent
McClintock: 4 percent
Huffington: 4 percent
Other: 3 percent
Not voting: 3 percent
Not sure: 26 percent
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