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India nuclear war { June 1 2002 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/kashmir/Story/0,2763,725968,00.htmlhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/kashmir/Story/0,2763,725968,00.html
India alert as nuclear war looms
Luke Harding in New Delhi, and Richard Norton-Taylor
Saturday June 1, 2002
The Guardian
The foreign secretary Jack Straw last night urged Britons to leave India immediately because of its "dangerous" military stand-off with its nuclear rival Pakistan and advised all nationals against travelling to the region.
The decision was taken after western intelligence assessments warned that a new terrorist attack in India or the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir could spark war between the two countries, leading to a nuclear exchange.
"The situation is extraordinarily serious. It could very rapidly lead to nuclear war," a well-placed source said last night."This is a credible scenario, millions of people would be killed and untold damage be done to the infrastructure."
Diplomatic sources insisted that such a doomsday scenario was "very real". Neither the Indian nor Pakistani government had grasped the seriousness of the situation and the leaders of both countries would find it very difficult for domestic political reasons to back down, the sources said.
Mr Straw's announcement came shortly after the US state department said all non-essential US diplomats would be pulling out of India and urged the 60,000 Americans living in the country to leave.
Whitehall fears that a major terrorist incident by extremists based in Pakistan or Pakistani-controlled Kashmir would provoke a massive Indian attack. The Indians, according to intelligence assessments, are prepared for a nuclear response by Pakistan, which has fewer conventional forces and, unlike India, has not declared a "no first use" policy.
Diplomatic sources said last night that, unlike the sides in the cold war, India and Pakistan did not appreciate the dangers of a conflict escalating into a nuclear exchange and their leaders had no experience of personal "hotline" communications.
They said the situation had markedly deteriorated over the past week despite frantic diplomatic efforts, including a visit by Mr Straw to the region. President George Bush is sending his defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to the region next week to pile further pressure on the Pakistani leader, General Pervez Musharraf.
Mr Straw said that the families of British government staff in New Delhi, together with officials in non-essential positions, and in British consulates, would be offered the chance to return home.
The advice to Britons to leave India was voluntary because the government did not want to appear alarmist, diplomatic sources said.
Mr Straw described his move as a "precautionary measure" but it is likely to spark chaos in India, where the government estimates more than 20,000 British nationals live. Any evacuation over the next few weeks is likely to be fraught.
Restrictions on airline travel to Delhi by the Indian government mean getting a ticket out of the country at short notice is virtually impossible.
The US deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, yesterday warned that conflict between India and Pakistan would be "somewhere between terrible and catastrophic".
Speaking in Singapore Mr Wolfowitz hinted that the US would withdraw aid to Pakistan unless Gen Musharraf delivered on his promise to end "cross-border terrorism".
Pakistan and India continue to exchange fire on the border, where a million men are dug in. Indian officials said a soldier was killed by Pakistani shelling in Kashmir. Pakistan said a person was killed in the Pukhlian area by Indian shelling.
Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
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