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Bush awaits blairs orders { March 7 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-602024,00.htmlhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-602024,00.html
World News
March 07, 2003
Bush ready but holding back for Blair's sake
By Michael Evans, Defence Editor
A COLLAPSE in diplomatic bargaining at the United Nations Security Council could provoke President Bush to launch an attack on Iraq in a matter of days, British officials said yesterday.
Even though neither the American nor the British military invasion forces are fully in place, General Tommy Franks, commander of US Central Command, has stated publicly that he is now ready to launch Operation Desert Storm II.
There are sufficient combat aircraft, troops, tanks and Tomahawk cruise missiles in the Gulf region for an American-led coalition force to overwhelm the Iraqi military.
A British defence source said: “There is no question that, militarily, the Americans could start a war this weekend.”
However, the source added: “There is still a lot of politics to get sorted out. President Bush knows that for the sake of his chief ally, Tony Blair, every diplomatic effort has to be made to try and ensure legitimate cover for military force. He owes that to the Prime Minister.”
For sound military, as well as political reasons, General Franks may also need a little more time, perhaps two or three weeks. if he is to be able to handle every possible option and scenario. A British military source said: “In the longer term, we are going to need other countries to provide troops as a security force for Iraq once the fighting is over. If there is no UN backing for a war, other countries may just refuse to contribute peacekeeping troops after the conflict is over.”
The source added: “This would mean that we and the Americans would have to shoulder the burden of peacekeeping as well as warfighting and that could entail a long stay in Iraq, something we can ill-afford to do. We need as many other countries on board as possible and that won’t happen unless we get a second Security Council resolution, authorising force.”
Sources said that an incomplete invasion force could also cause problems if the coalition advance to Baghdad were seriously diverted — for example, if there were an uprising among the Shia in southern Iraq, or if there were a successful Iraqi biological and chemical attack on coalition troops with thousands of casualties.
“If an invasion were to be launched prematurely before everything was in place, we could find ourselves without enough troops to deal with the unpredictable or to handle the security challenges in the aftermath of a regime-collapse in Baghdad,” one source said.
In terms of military deployment, there are still gaps in the coalition force. Britain’s 7th Armoured Brigade, the Desert Rats, is not yet ready. The brigade’s tanks and Warrior armoured vehicles are still being offloaded, and many troops are waiting to fly from Germany to Kuwait.
Most RAF bombers and other British aircraft assigned for the war have arrived in the region, but defence sources said that the crews needed time to acclimatise and to study complex command and control arrangements. Crews could still, however, be ready for operations at a few hours’ notice.
The need to shore up Mr Blair’s political position is now perceived in Washington to be one of the key issues holding up an invasion date, so General Franks and President Bush will have to wait for the diplomatic game in New York to reach a conclusion before the military campaign can start.
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