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Shiite deathsquares fade as sunnis on warpath { February 2007 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/06/ap/world/main2540223.shtmlhttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/06/ap/world/main2540223.shtml
Analysis: Sunnis On Warpath In Baghdad
Analysis: Sunnis On The Attack As Shiite Militias Step Back In The Baghdad
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Mar. 6, 2007
(AP) Sunni insurgents are striking back with attention-grabbing bombings in Baghdad and gruesome killings posted on the Internet, in an apparent effort to shore up their positions around the Iraqi capital as the U.S. struggles to secure the city.
That is changing the nature of the conflict in Iraq, at least temporarily _ shifting the main focus from the Sunni-Shiite "civil war" of recent months to a renewed attention on Sunni insurgents as the root of the crisis.
The shift could be temporary if Shiite death squads once again become active in Baghdad. But for now, the change indicates how all sides opposed to the U.S. presence show surprising resilience and ability to switch strategies to survive.
As the Shiite militias have faded from view, Sunnis have accelerated their attacks. Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 commander in Iraq, said recently that Sunnis were accounting for about 70 percent of the attacks against coalition troops.
"It's their answer to the `surge' strategy _ recoil, redeploy and spoil," Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group said of the Sunni insurgents. "The strategy is to deploy into the vacuum left by the current focus on Baghdad."
Inside Baghdad, the insurgent goal appears to be to kill enough Shiite civilians to provoke the Shiite militias, especially the Mahdi Army of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, back into the streets. That would force a showdown between the Mahdi Army and the Americans, weakening the Shiite militia and straining relations between the Shiite-led government its U.S. backers.
Outside the capital, Sunni militants are trying to expand footholds to the northeast in Diyala province while hitting back hard against a U.S.-backed Sunni tribal militia in Anbar to the west. And a double suicide attack that killed about 90 Shiite pilgrims in Hillah shows that Sunni extremists also are capable of delivering blows south of Baghdad.
The trappings of an Islamic shadow state with al-Qaida as its base are already taking shape in some towns and cities of Anbar where a government presence hardly exists, according to Sunni residents.
Members of the self-styled "Islamic State of Iraq," which was proclaimed in October, sometimes flog men in public for "un-Islamic" behavior such as wearing their hair too long. In towns north of Baghdad, the Islamic State has posted signs warning that alcohol and cigarettes are against Islam.
Meanwhile in Baghdad, Sunni insurgents are trying to turn to their advantage one notable early success of the security operation _ the virtual disappearance from the streets of armed fighters from the Mahdi militia.
Under tremendous U.S. pressure, Iraq's Shiite prime minister persuaded al-Sadr to rein in his militia and allow the Americans and the mostly Shiite Iraqi security forces to deploy to protect civilians.
On Sunday, in the most visible sign of that deal so far, hundreds of American and Iraqi soldiers rolled into the Mahdi Army's stronghold of Sadr City without firing a shot, establishing their biggest presence in the sprawling slum since 2004.
With the Mahdi Army off the streets, Baghdad has seen a sharp drop in the number of sectarian reprisal killings, which had left dozens of bullet-riddled bodies scattered across the capital each day for the past five months.
Indeed, many Shiites believe that the absence of Mahdi protection also has given Sunni extremists an opportunity to stage deadly attacks against them, such as the suicide bombing in Baghdad's center on Monday.
Al-Sadr has already complained that the security plan has failed to stop the Sunni bombings _ a veiled warning that his militia may return to the streets if the Americans and their Iraqi partners cannot restore order.
The gruesome slaughter of 18 policemen in Diyala province appeared aimed at telling Iraqis that they cannot count on the government to protect them. Last weekend, an al-Qaida-affilated group posted a online video showing the policemen kneeling as masked gunmen fired into the back of the captives' heads.
One Sunni leader, associated with an insurgent group with ties to Saddam Hussein's banned party, suggested the insurgents would go for high-profile strikes inside the capital for just that reason _ to cast doubt on the government's ability to protect people.
"What is happening in Baghdad is a new kind of tactics that comes prior to the tempest," he said. He spoke on condition of anonymity for his own security. "The attacks are expected to be harsher and more painful."
Another Sunni leader said Baghdad remains the center for "the resistance" and that the Sunnis would never abandon the capital to the Americans and the Shiites. He spoke by telephone to The Associated Press in Amman, Jordan, on condition of anonymity for his own security.
Nevertheless, U.S. commanders believe the Sunnis have no choice but to shift their focus outside Baghdad _ at least partially _ after thousands of Sunnis were driven from the capital last year by the Shiite militias.
"Sunnis understand they need to control areas around Baghdad if they eventually want to control Baghdad," Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixson, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, told The Associated Press. "And they don't have Baghdad right now."
In particular, the loss of sanctuaries in Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad could make it tough for Sunni militants to sustain attacks inside Baghdad over the long term.
American forces have been raiding weapons and ammunition stocks in Sunni areas of Baghdad and its outskirts, depriving the insurgents of materials for car bombs.
U.S. troops have also been setting up bases in formerly mixed neighborhoods to allow Sunni civilians to return _ while trying to screen out insurgents among them.
Both Sunni insurgents and Shiite death squads are "preparing for the real battle for Baghdad _ which begins when the surge is over," Harling said.
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Robert H. Reid is AP correspondent-at-large and has reported frequently from Iraq since 2003.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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