News and Document archive source
copyrighted material disclaimer at bottom of page

NewsMinewar-on-terroriraqinsurgency — Viewing Item


Cia estimates insurgents now 50000 strong

Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
   http://www.lexpress.mu/display_article.php?news_id=7850

http://www.lexpress.mu/display_article.php?news_id=7850

IRAQ
CIA says insurgents now 50,000 strong

A devastating CIA report warns that the guerrilla war in Iraq was in danger of escalating out of US control, constraining White House to accelerate transfer of power.

The White House drew up emergency plans on Wednesday to accelerate the transfer of power in Iraq after being shown a devastating CIA report warning that the guerrilla war was in danger of escalating out of US control.

The report, an “appraisal of situation” commissioned by the CIA director, George Tenet, and written by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, said that the insurgency was gaining ground among the population, and already numbers in the tens of thousands.

One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents’ strength at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon had led the administration to believe.

An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described it as a “bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting stronger. It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and dramatic change of course,” the source said. “There are thousands in the resistance – not just a core of Ba’athists. They are in the thousands, and growing every day. Not all those people are actually firing, but providing support, shelter and all that.”

Although the report was an internal CIA document it was widely circulated within the administration. Even more unusually, it carried an endorsement by Paul Bremer, the civilian head of the US-run occupation of Iraq – a possible sign that he was seeking to bypass his superiors in the Pentagon and send a message directly to President George Bush on how bad the situation has become.

Proof of the strength of the insurgents and their ability to strike anywhere in Iraq was provided in another devastating suicide bombing on Thursday. This time the target was the Italian military police barracks in the south-eastern city of Nasariya.

At least 17 Italians and eight Iraqis were killed, striking a blow at one of the few nations prepared to send troops to help the US and Britain contain the rising violence.

Following crisis talks in Washington Thursday, Bremer flew back to Baghdad armed with proposals to bolster the US-backed Iraqi governing council with more powers and more resources in an attempt to speed up elections.

The new blueprint

Under one of the proposals, the council could be expanded or transformed into a full provisional government backed by an interim constitution. That would represent a radical reversal of earlier US policy which was to put off the transfer of real power to an Iraqi government until after elections, which in turn would have to await a comprehensive new constitution.

The new blueprint, which reverses that methodological progression and which is closer to what was done in post-war Afghanistan, emerged from an urgently arranged series of meetings between the president, his top national security advisers, and Bremer, as the security situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate rapidly.

In scenes Thursday night reminiscent of the height of the war, US forces went back on the offensive with air strikes and armoured assaults on a suspected guerrilla stronghold near Baghdad. Guerrilla attacks, meanwhile, have become more frequent, bolder and bloodier.

In public at least, the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has insisted that the attacks are the work of a few remnants of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist party and a handful of Islamic jihadists from other Arab countries.

It is understood that Bremer’s administration is concerned about the impact of the decision by US forces to escalate their offensive against the insurgents, anxious that bombing and heavy-handed raids will increase popular support for the insurgency.

Bremer refused to provide details of the new US plan, but US and British officials said he was carrying proposals from Bush aimed at bolstering the interim Iraqi leadership in the hope of winning the confidence of Iraqis and paving the way for elections pencilled in for the end of next year. But, according to some US officials, elections could be held in four to six months.

UN deadline

The UN security council has given the Iraqi governing council until December 15 to come up with a constitutional blueprint and organising elections.

The council, deeply divided by internal disputes, has shown little sign of meeting that deadline, but the new US proposals would put it under pressure to accelerate its work and the transfer of power. One of the options discussed in the White House Thursday was replacing the governing council with a new body.

The council was hand-picked by Washington after the war, largely from returning exiles, but it has since disappointed US officials by its slow progress. Many of its 24 members fail to turn up to its meetings, and the CIA report said the council had little support among the Iraqi population.

However, the secretary of state, Colin Powell insisted: “We are committed to the governing council and are prepared to help them in any way we can.We’re looking at all sorts of ideas, and we do want to accelerate the work of reform. We want to accelerate the work of putting a legal basis under the new Iraqi government and we are doing everything we can to get the governing council equipped with everything they need.”



Julian Borger



2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
brain-washed-insurgents
civil-war
contractor-stoffel
death-squads
foreign-insurgents
surge
undercover-brits-basra
US-fueling-fire
wounded-soldiers
zarqawi
2m iraqi refugees mainly children in syria { October 16 2007 }
50 thousand iraqi insurgents dead or caught { July 26 2005 }
7 deadliest attacks since war to 2005 { January 5 2006 }
70 percent of iraqi children show signs of trauma
Alqaeda in iraq accused to be sunni group { January 29 2007 }
Alqaeda in iraq working for pay no ideals { November 30 2007 }
American matthew waxman captured
Americas intifada
Army discharges 3 in beating scandal { January 6 2004 }
Army failed to anticipate iraqi insurgency { June 29 2008 }
Baghdad sniper oddly only targets coalition troops { August 5 2005 }
Britain to cut troop level in iraq { September 19 2004 }
Chemical weapons used during fallujah assault { November 8 2005 }
Cia estimates insurgents now 50000 strong
Critism on rumsfeld mounts { September 14 2003 }
Daniel pipes says civil war could have strategic advantage { February 28 2006 }
Honduras troop in iraq [jpg]
Insurgency disrupts power to iraqi citizens { February 21 2005 }
Insurgency is no ho chi minh says rumsfeld
Insurgency larger and mostly secular iraqis { July 9 2004 }
Insurgency violence strikes mainly iraqi civilians { March 3 2006 }
Insurgents seek to exploit sectarian rivalries { May 17 2005 }
Iraq now prime training ground for militants { June 22 2005 }
Iraq oil pipeline blasts squander revenue
Iraq rebels want democracy and independence { August 6 2004 }
Iraqi woman confesses to jordan attack
Iraqis wait for release of promised detainees { January 8 2004 }
La times ordered not to use term resistance { November 7 2003 }
Madonna calls for troops to come home
Not resistance fighters times told reporters
Occupation blamed for new iraq terror front { July 18 2005 }
Officials say hussein coordinating attacks { October 31 2003 }
Rice concedes thousands of tactical errors in iraq
Sectarian revenge killings raise civil war fears { May 17 2005 }
Sectarian war spreads to pakistan and afghanistan { February 10 2006 }
Shiites torture sunnis into false confession
Spanish leader pulling troops from iraq { April 18 2004 }
Spy agencies warned of iraq resistance { September 9 2003 }
US considers elite squads for iraq
Us deaths not fully reported { October 30 2003 }
US underestimated size of insurgency { January 27 2005 }
Usa today founder calls for troops return home { December 23 2004 }

Files Listed: 42



Correction/submissions

CIA FOIA Archive

National Security
Archives
Support one-state solution for Israel and Palestine Tea Party bumper stickers JFK for Dummies, The Assassination made simple