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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-413127,00.htmlhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-413127,00.html
US tempts Russia with profits of ousting Saddam
From Robin Shepherd in Moscow
AS PRESIDENT BUSH demanded action from the United Nations against Iraq, a US emissary was lobbying for support in Russia, the one member of the UN Security Council that might block approval for the use of force.
John Bolton, the Undersecretary of State, was officially in Moscow to discuss non-proliferation, but officials said privately that Iraq was at the top of his agenda. A Russian veto would force the United States and Britain to reconsider their plans to oust President Saddam Hussein or to wage a lone military campaign against Iraq.
Diplomats and analysts are far from certain that Russia will agree to the use of force, despite President Putin’s rapport with Mr Bush. They say that economic factors will be a key argument, with a promise that Russia will be offered big contracts in the rebuilding of a postwar Iraq at the top of the list of incentives. The Soviet Union was largely responsible for the development of Iraq’s military and industrial infrastructure and Russian firms would be well placed to help to modernise it once Saddam has gone.
Some experts argue that Russia’s recent announcement of a £26 billion investment programme in Iraq should be seen as nothing more than brinkmanship — Russia’s way of naming the price for its support. “We view the programme as Russia staking out its claim to any postwar deal,” Paul Lewis, a Russia and Eastern Europe specialist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, said.
They also say that Russian oil companies are likely to benefit from investment opportunities if Saddam is removed, and Iraq’s £5 billion debt to Moscow is much more likely to be paid, as Alexander Vershbow, the US Ambassador, suggested this week. Washington could throw in some incentives of its own, such as easier access to American markets and help in entering the World Trade Organisation.
One problem is that Russia has heard it all before. Senior Russian politicians have been increasingly vocal in arguing that the post-Cold War relationship between Russia and America has been nothing but one-way traffic.
Russia has pulled out of Vietnam and Cuba, backed down over Nato’s plans to admit the Baltic states of the former Soviet Union, and kept quiet when the US unilaterally pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The US Congress has failed to reciprocate by, for example, lifting Cold War-era trade restrictions such as the Jackson-Vanik Amendment — a double humiliation since its terms no longer apply even to China. In addition, Russia still has no firm timetable for WTO membership.
Another problem is that Russia already does well out of its relationship with Saddam. Russian industry is a prime beneficiary of the UN oil-for-food programme, and is able to capitalise on a variety of industrial projects in Iraq that would be opened up to fierce foreign competition should Saddam be ousted.
Moreover, if a new Iraqi regime decided to turn on its oil taps the price of oil could plummet, which would hurt the Russian economy considerably. With elections in 2004 this is a factor that Mr Putin cannot afford to ignore. It is likely, therefore, that the price of Moscow’s support will be higher than the mere encouragement it has received so far.
President Putin warned the UN Security Council yesterday that Russia may soon launch its own war against terrorism in Georgia, with the aim of hunting down Chechen guerrillas.
Mr Putin sent a message to the Council’s four other permanent members as well as to Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, saying that Russia would take “adequate measures” if Georgia failed to re- establish control of its Pankisi Gorge region, near the border with Chechnya.
Chechen rebels have used the area as a base throughout their three-year war with Russia. Moscow’s uneasy relations with Georgia have threatened to break down over the issue.
“If Georgia fails to take concrete steps to destroy the terrorists, and they continue to attack us from its territory, then Russia, in strict compliance with international law, will take adequate measures for averting the terrorist threat,” Mr Putin said in his message. However, he added that Russia had no intention of bringing about a change of government in Tbilisi.
The Russian media has speculated that Moscow and Washington have reached an agreement in which Mr Putin would turn a blind eye to any US operation in Iraq provided Mr Bush does the same over Georgia.
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