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Iraq plan hinges on help from iran syria shiites Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
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Iraq Plan Hinges on Uncertain Embrace From Iran, Syria, Shiites
By Janine Zacharia and Ken Fireman
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Iraq Study Group's plan for an orderly U.S. exit from Iraq hinges on the cooperation of some of the most anti-American forces in the region -- Iran, Syria and radical Iraqi Shiite leaders -- as well as President George W. Bush's support.
There were no surprise proposals in the highly anticipated 142-page report issued yesterday, with the commission rejecting both an immediate withdrawal and an increased military commitment.
Instead, the bipartisan panel outlined a path for reduced U.S. involvement by forcing Iraqis and their neighbors to assume more responsibility. Syria would be asked to seal its long border with Iraq to stop the infiltration of insurgents, and Iran to use its influence with majority Iraqi Shiite Muslims to halt attacks on Sunnis.
Speculation in Washington during the runup to the report's release centered on whether Bush would accept the recommendations. When he met with commission members yesterday, Bush, while not committing himself, seemed open and willing to listen to their advice, according to one member who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Yet Iranian cooperation may be even more problematic, as James A. Baker III, the study group's co-chairman, acknowledged at a news conference.
``We didn't get the feeling that Iran is chomping at the bit to come to the table with us to talk about Iraq,'' Baker said. ``We say we think they very well might not. But we also say we ought to put it to them, though, so the world will see the rejectionist attitude that they are projecting by that action.''
Diminish Role
The report seeks to diminish the U.S. role in Iraq by regionalizing responsibility for restoring stability. At the core of the recommendations is a new diplomatic offensive by an International Iraq Support Group to be made up of Iraq's neighbors -- including Iran and Syria -- the United Nations, the European Union and other countries with a stake in Iraq's future.
The U.S. should offer incentives to Iran and Syria to play a constructive role in Iraq, the commission argues, including a fresh effort to broker a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace deal. The U.S. also must clearly indicate it has no intention of overthrowing the Syrian or Iranian governments.
``Although Iran sees it in its interest to have the United States bogged down in Iraq, Iran's interests would not be served by a failure of U.S. policy in Iraq that led to chaos and territorial disintegration of the Iraqi state,'' the panel concluded in its report.
Syrian Help
Baker, 76, who served as secretary of state under President George H.W. Bush and built an Arab coalition to oppose Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, told reporters that in contrast to Iran, there were ``strong indications'' Syria would help.
The Iraq Study Group described in its report a possible bargain in which Israel would hand back the Golan Heights captured from Syria in a 1967 war and Syria would stop supporting Hezbollah against Israel. The return of the Golan could include a U.S.-backed security guarantee of an international force on the border, the panel said.
`Bleeding, Weakened'
Some experts on the region said asking either Syria or Iran to cooperate is unrealistic.
``Put yourself in Iranian or Syrian shoes,'' said Henri Barkey, a former State Department official who is now chairman of the international relations department at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. ``We are exactly where they want us to be: mired in mud, bleeding, weakened, and therefore unable to challenge what both of them are trying to do. So why would they want to help us?''
Barkey said Iran and Syria would only be inclined to provide cooperation at a price that would be unacceptable to either Bush or the U.S. Congress. Iran would demand U.S. acceptance of its nuclear program, while Syria would insist on being allowed to regain control over Lebanon, he said.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the report's call for an ``unconditional dialogue'' between the U.S. and Iran is unrealistic. ``There isn't such a thing in Middle East politics,'' he said in a telephone interview from Morocco. ``What's the price? Are they willing to offer them this price?''
Nuclear Concessions
Zebari agreed that Iranian leaders would demand U.S. concessions on the nuclear program the U.S. suspects is geared toward building a bomb. ``If the U.S. wants to talk to them, they need something in return,'' he said.
Qubad Talabani, the Washington representative of the Kurdish regional authority in northern Iraq and son of Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, also questioned the efficacy of engaging Iran diplomatically.
``What can the U.S. do, if anything, that the Iraqi government is not doing to accelerate a better relationship with Iran?'' Talabani asked in an interview.
``In the long run,'' Talabani said, Iran may be persuaded to cooperate because its leaders ``would not want to see a failed Iraq. But the Iranians will speak and make decisions on their terms. And that's where I see the biggest difficulty.''
Iranian-Iraqi relations improved after the ouster of Hussein, who began a war with Iran in 1980 that lasted eight years and killed hundreds of thousands. The U.S. accuses Iran of supporting militias formed by fellow Shiite Muslims in Iraq. The two countries share a 1,485-kilometer (923-mile) border.
White House spokesman Tony Snow yesterday ruled out one-on- one talks with Iran unless it abandons uranium-enrichment activities, although he left open the prospect of discussions under the umbrella of the regional support group.
Shiite Militia
Another of the report's recommendations calls for the U.S. to talk directly to Iraqi militia leaders such as Moqtada al- Sadr, the head of the estimated 60,000-person Mahdi Army, which has been accused of carrying out violent attacks on Sunni Muslim Iraqis. U.S. forces have tried to kill Sadr in the past.
The report argues that the security situation cannot improve unless Shiite militias are demobilized and Sunnis abandon their violent insurgency. It notes that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has ``shown little willingness to take on'' Sadr or his militia.
Iraqi Doubts
Zebari, the Iraqi foreign minister, said he didn't believe either Sadr or Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most senior Shiite cleric, would even meet with U.S. officials. Sadr is ``afraid he would be apprehended by them,'' Zebari said.
Barkey also expressed doubts about the success of trying to win Sadr's cooperation. Sadr is not entirely in control of his own militia, Barkey said, and in any case has built his political appeal on ``complete opposition'' to the U.S. occupation.
``He's on a par with the most extreme Sunnis,'' Barkey said. ``He's more extreme than the Iranians. For him it would be a major ideological change.''
The only approach that might work with Sadr, Barkey said, would be to emphasize the Iraq Study Group's proposal of a pullout of most U.S. combat forces by 2008 and tell him that his cooperation is essential in meeting that goal.
``But I'm not sure he could deliver,'' Barkey added. ``I'm not sure he would understand such a deal. He is a primitive.''
Last Updated: December 7, 2006 00:07 EST
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