NewsMine — economy — asia — Viewing Item

China gdp 20 percent bigger than expected { December 13 2005 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)    http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1ed16fae-6b96-11da-bb53-0000779e2340.html http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1ed16fae-6b96-11da-bb53-0000779e2340.html China to revise size of GDP By Richard McGregor in Beijing Published: December 13 2005 05:10 | Last updated: December 13 2005 11:28 China is poised to announce its economy is significantly larger than the government’s official measure following a national economic census which found a large underestimation of the country’s thriving and largely private services sector. The revision is also expected to show the economy is less reliant on investment and more driven by consumption than previously projected, two trends that Chinese leaders have been trying to encourage. A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday it would announce the findings of the census and its impact on the calculation on GDP at a press conference in Beijing next week. The NBS refused to say by how much it would revise the GDP figures, but it is expected that the new measure could show the economy was larger by about 20 per cent. Beijing-based economists said they expected the revision to add between Rmb2,000bn ($248bn) and Rmb2,4000 to the size of GDP, which last year was Rmb13,650bn. “The figures we used in the past have all been changed,” said Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central Bank, at a conference in Beijing this week. The increase is mainly due to the past underestimation of China’s service sector, such as small industrial enterprises and shops, restaurants, hair salons and other entertainment venues. The NBS is also likely to give greater weight in calculating GDP to these rapidly growing enterprises over the less nimble and more mature state sector, another factor behind the upward revision. The revision has been expected since the NBS completed the country’s first national economic census mid-year, a survey involving millions of data collectors dispatched to register businesses not picked up by previous surveys. It is not yet clear how the NBS proposes to present the revisions, and whether it will say that it has underestimated the rate of growth of the economy in recent years. Independent economists have long said that China’s official growth figures over the past two to three years have substantially underestimated the real rise in economic output. In addition, the NBS may use the survey to revise the size of the economy in the mid-90s, and then recalculate growth from a larger base. Song Guoqing, a professor at Peking University, said he believed that a revision of GDP by 20 per cent would still not be large enough to capture the true size of the economy. “Private companies may continue to understate the size of their business in order to escape tax,” he said. Professor Song and other economists said the most significant result of the survey could be the upward revision of the share of consumption in the Chinese economy, and a reduction in the contribution of investment. “The bottom line is that China’s much-touted ‘overinvestment economy’ is probably a relic of the existing statistics,” said Jonathan Anderson, of UBS, in Hong Kong. Investment now accounts for nearly half of China’s annual GDP growth. The quality of China’s economic statistics have long been criticised, including by the country’s leaders, who worry that local officials exaggerate their own GDP growth in order to win plaudits in Beijing. The NBS has worked hard to make the figures more credible, setting up independent reporting lines to the provinces in an attempt to get around any local distortions.

Asia bankers gear up china stock deals { August 28 2003 } Asian stocks slide india halted { April 2004 } Bank of japan predicts continued deflation China gdp 20 percent bigger than expected { December 13 2005 } China losing protections for poor { January 15 2006 } China raises interest rates for first time in 9 years China replaces us { June 28 2002 } China says 2005 surplus near 102 billion China toy sweat shops China widens role in latin america { November 20 2004 } Downgrade for japanese economy Economic damage seen in asia after terror Foreign direct investment in china hits records India buys 1b in asian bonds Japan 18yr low { September 2 2002 } Japan 19yr low Japan europe concerned for dollar slide Japan markets two days plunge { January 19 2006 } Japan pursuing weak yen policy { August 27 2003 } Japan vm prefers bonds local currency { August 15 2003 } Japanese stocks plunge april 2005 { April 18 2005 } Japanese yen gains against dollar Rural healthcare dies as china wealth grows { January 14 2006 } Tokyo nikkei 20 yr low { April 11 2003 } Tokyo stocks fall 5 percent Files Listed: 25

Correction/submissions

CIA FOIA Archive

National Security Archives

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information, go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purpose of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.