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Dollar falls to nine year lows { November 4 2004 }

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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a67665a0-2e8d-11d9-97e3-00000e2511c8.html

Dollar falls to nine-year lows
By Steve Johnson and Kevin Morrison in London and Jennifer Hughes in New York

Published: November 4 2004 18:19 | Last updated: November 4 2004 18:19

The dollar fell to fresh nine-year lows in trade-weighted terms on Thursday and gold prices reached a 16-year peak amid concerns over tensions in the Middle East and a renewed belief in the dollar's longer-term decline.

Traders said reports of Yassir Arafat's continuing ill-health were weighing on the dollar. “This spells trouble for the dollar since it could mean protracted US involvement in the region, not just Iraq,” said Kamal Sharma, currencies strategist at Dresdnert Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Middle Eastern investors, including central banks, have been active in the market selling dollars over the past two days, according to traders. There has been speculation for some time that investors in the region would seek to diversify their largely dollar-based wealth as the greenback weakened.

“People are not just looking at simply the next few months for the dollar, they're looking more broadly at a decline over the next few years,” said Tony Norfield, global head of currency strategy at ABN Amro.

The greenback's weakness was also attributed to the re-election of President George W. Bush. Since the start of Mr Bush's first term the dollar has fallen 20.8 per cent in trade-weighted terms and observers do not expect a change in dollar policy in his second term.

“Dollar sentiment is dire at the moment,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. “Bush has been given an extremely strong mandate and that raises doubts about his commitment to reduce the budget deficit by half over a five-year period.”

Thursday's selling saw the dollar fall to $1.2886, within 0.4 cents of its February all-time low against the euro. It declined to an eight-year low of SFr1.1854 against the Swiss franc, a 12-year low of C$1.2034 against the Canadian dollar and to within a whisker of a six-month low against the yen.

Gold hit a 16-year high of $432.95 a troy ounce, before settling at $429.65/$430.40 in late London trade.

The dollar's decline against the euro was hastened by Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, who emphasised the risk of inflation at a press conference but declined to say that the euro's strength of the euro was hurting the eurozone.



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