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GOP resistance on social security { January 11 2005 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64196-2005Jan10.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64196-2005Jan10.html
In GOP, Resistance On Social Security
Bush Plan Raises Fear of Voter Anger
By Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, January 11, 2005; Page A01
Many Republicans are expressing reservations about the political wisdom of President Bush's vision for restructuring Social Security, as the White House today intensifies its campaign to restructure the entitlement program for the retired and disabled.
Bush, who relishes challenging the conventional wisdoms of Washington, has privately counseled Republicans that partially privatizing Social Security will be a boon for the GOP and has urged skeptics to hold fire until he builds a public case for change. But several influential Republicans are warning that Bush's plan could backfire on the party in next year's elections, especially if the plan includes cuts in benefits.
Most alarming to White House officials, some congressional Republicans are panning the president's plan -- even before it is unveiled. "Why stir up a political hornet's nest . . . when there is no urgency?" said Rep. Rob Simmons (Conn.), who represents a competitive district. "When does the program go belly up? 2042. I will be dead by then."
Simmons said there is no way he will support Bush's idea of allowing younger Americans to divert some of their payroll taxes into private accounts, especially when there are more pressing needs, such as shoring up Medicare and providing armor to U.S. troops in Iraq.
Rep. Jack Kingston (Ga.), a member of the GOP leadership, said 15 to 20 House Republicans agree with Simmons, although others say the number is closer to 40. "Just convincing our guys not to be timid is going to be a big struggle," he said. "It's going to take a lot of convincing," which he said can be done.
"The politics of this are brutal," one senior GOP leadership aide said, adding that the White House has yet to convince most House members that the "third rail" of American politics is somehow safe.
Outside Congress, several party activists are sounding similar alarms after word spread last week that Bush is planning to reduce future benefits as part of the restructuring. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) is warning that Republicans could lose their 10-year House majority if the White House follows through with that proposal.
William Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard, is challenging the president's assertions that Social Security is in crisis and that Republicans will be rewarded for fixing it. Republicans are privately "bewildered why this is such a White House priority," he said. "I am a skeptic politically and a little bit substantively."
With all but a few congressional Democrats opposed to Bush's plan for private Social Security accounts, the president's ability to win over these GOP skeptics will determine whether he can accomplish his top domestic priority for the second term, White House and congressional officials said.
"This is the toughest political fight the president has ever picked," Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute said. "On the other hand, the president has never lost a fight he has wanted to win." For decades, Republicans have lost congressional votes and elections because Democrats accused them of conspiring to gut Social Security, the nearly 70-year-old program that provides the retired, the disabled and others a monthly check. For many, especially seniors, Social Security is their primary income for housing, food and insurance. Democrats' accusations often proved deadly to Republicans because seniors vote in larger percentages than younger voters.
But Bush and top strategist Karl Rove, the political force behind the Social Security plan, are convinced that the politics of Social Security have changed over the past six years -- and in a direction that could help the GOP cement a durable governing majority. In public and private talks, the president and Rove contend that voters young and old realize Social Security is near financial ruin and are receptive to allowing Americans to voluntarily divert some of their payroll taxes, which are earmarked for Social Security, to private investment accounts.
There is empirical data to support their thesis. Bush touted the issue in both presidential campaigns. Dozens of House and Senate Republicans successfully did the same in the 2002 and 2004 elections.
"I think it can help in '06 and going forward," said the incoming Republican National Committee chairman, Ken Mehlman. Pointing to successful campaigns in North Carolina, New Hampshire and Kentucky, he said, "If you look at the history of it, candidates that have approached it the way George W. Bush and Elizabeth Dole and John Sununu and Anne Northup did -- all four in very different elections, in very different places -- have been successful."
This view is supported by many congressional Republicans, who, like Rove, see an even bigger payoff for Republicans in the long term. They believe Bush can do for Republicans what Franklin D. Roosevelt did for Democrats when he proposed the program more than seven decades ago: create a generation of voters who see them as the guardian of their retirement program.
Still, a number of Republicans note neither Bush nor any congressional Republican has won on a specific plan to change the retirement system, especially one that called for cuts in benefits.
"Why would you go home tomorrow having cut benefits in Social Security for a problem that might happen in 25 years?" said Gingrich, who supports private accounts but opposes benefit cuts to pay for them.
Some Republicans question whether Bush's victories had anything to do with Social Security. A post-election survey by Pew found that Social Security was named by 1 percent of voters as the most important or second most important issue in deciding their vote.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll in late December found that 1 in 4 Americans thinks the Social Security system is in crisis, and the percentage that says the country is facing a Social Security crisis has gone down, not up, since 1998.
"I don't buy the partisan argument that Republicans benefit by somehow carving up this Democratic program," Kristol said. He contended it could undermine other GOP initiatives, such as making Bush's tax cuts permanent, because it would sap money and the president's political capital.
Simmons said that few constituents cite Social Security as a major concern, and that numerous GOP colleagues say the same in private.
Sensitive to such charges, Bush today will host an event featuring Americans of all ages talking about why the program must be restructured immediately. Vice President Cheney, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow, and Joshua B. Bolten, director of the Office of Management and Budget, are planning similar events this week, as the White House seeks to reassure Republicans.
Yesterday, the House Republican Conference invited GOP press secretaries to a Friday "Social Security Briefing" with a New York consultant who helps corporations sell products and has conducted research on Social Security messaging
Staff writer Jonathan Weisman and polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.
© 2005 The Washington Post Company
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