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Gates represents bush shift in iran iraq policy { October 2006 }

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqsT9EIBeV1o&refer=home

Bush's Choice of Gates Sets Stage for Shift on Iraq War Policy
By Janine Zacharia

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's decision to tap one of his father's old advisers, former CIA chief Robert Gates, to replace Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld suggests a readiness to examine a new strategy in Iraq.

Bush's announcement yesterday came after congressional elections swept Democrats to power in the U.S. House on a wave of public discontent about the war in Iraq. The president wanted to move quickly to defuse criticism of his handling of the war effort, analysts said.

Gates is one of 10 members of the Iraq Study Group, a bipartisan panel trying to devise a blueprint for stabilizing the country that can be embraced by Bush. Gates ``will certainly try to extricate us from Iraq, but how fast that can be done I don't know,'' said Admiral Stansfield Turner, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency from 1977 to 1981.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, called Gates' nomination ``the best appointment that President Bush has made'' and said it ``may be marking the beginning of a major correction in American policy toward the Middle East.''

Gates, 63, who has served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, is known in defense and foreign policy circles as a pragmatist and an advocate of positions Rumsfeld resisted, such as direct negotiations with Iran, Iraq's Shiite neighbor.

Two years ago, Gates co-chaired with Brzezinski a task force on Iran policy that called for selective engagement with Iran ``to promote regional stability.''

Father's Team

Gates has remained close to former President George H.W. Bush, and is president of Texas A&M University, which hosts the Bush presidential library. In addition to Gates, the current President Bush is turning to another of his father's elder statesmen for help on Iraq: James Baker.

The former secretary of state is co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group along with ex-Representative Lee Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat. Bush said he will meet next week with the panel.

``I recognize that many Americans voted last night to register their displeasure with the lack of progress'' in Iraq, Bush said yesterday.

The Baker panel, which includes officials from President Bill Clinton's administration, is reviewing options for a U.S. withdrawal as Sunni resistance hardens and American influence wanes in Iraq. Bush affirmed yesterday that he wouldn't pull troops out prematurely amid mounting violence.

Civil War

A U.S. intelligence official familiar with the Iraqi insurgency said in an interview that the attempt to create a democracy in Iraq is failing in an atmosphere the official described as a civil war. The official said to restore order and undercut the rebellion, Iraq may have to declare an emergency and install an authoritarian Shiite government to replace what he characterized as the ineffectual Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

The U.S. needs to train and equip as many as 900,000 Iraqi security forces, almost three times the number now planned, and must find a way to persuade Sunni Arab governments such as Saudi Arabia to come off the sidelines and help stabilize Iraq, the official said.

Gates has experience on Iraq, having served as National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft's deputy during the Persian Gulf war in 1991. He has a doctorate in Soviet and Russian history and worked in the 1980s with CIA director William Casey, who led President Ronald Reagan's covert wars to oppose communism in Central America.

Andrew Krepinevich, who heads the non-partisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington and has briefed Pentagon officials on Iraq, sees changes coming.

``One can make a plausible case that the White House has some insight into the conclusions of the Iraq Study Group, they know what is coming and Gates is comfortable with it,'' Krepinevich said.

Democrats Rejoice

Democrats rallied around the nomination, saying it was a chance for a new direction.

Senator Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, the senior Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Gates' nomination may indicate Bush ``is searching for a realistic and pragmatic approach in Iraq and the war on terror, rather than continuing on a course driven by ideology.''

Michigan's Carl Levin, who would be chairman of the Armed Services Committee if Democrats take control of the Senate, said he will work to confirm Gates before the end of the year.

In remarks at the White House, Gates spoke about challenges beyond Iraq, including Afghanistan and the broader fight against terrorism. ``I believe the outcome of these conflicts will shape our world for decades to come,'' he said.

Criticism of Gates

Former White House counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke accused Gates, in testimony before the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks, of weakening the CIA's spying capabilities. U.S. officials were slow to learn of al-Qaeda's rise because of that, Clarke said.

Melvin Goodman, a former CIA analyst who testified against Gates' confirmation as director in 1991, accused Gates of doctoring intelligence reports to meet administration goals.

``When it comes to telling truth to power, this guy never did,'' said Goodman, now a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy in Washington. ``He serves a master. He will be very loyal. But will that be good for the country? Will that be good at getting out accurate information on Iraq?''

`Open Minded'

If confirmed, Gates would replace a defense chief known for a brusque and energetic management style, a zeal to transform the military and an unwillingness to admit mistakes -- all of which made Rumsfeld one of the most divisive figures in Bush's cabinet.

By contrast, Gates has proven he is ``open minded and he can work with Democrats,'' said Michael O'Hanlon, a defense analyst for the non-partisan Brookings Institution.

``Gates has a daunting job, but if I was going to make a list of my top five favorite Republicans with the sheer intellectual firepower to come up with new ideas, Gates would be on that list,'' O'Hanlon said.

David Boren, a Democrat who chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee from 1987 through 1992, said Gates would be a welcomed change from Rumsfeld's polarizing style. Gates ``always gave members of both parties an equal seat at the table,'' he said.

Rumsfeld Era

Rumsfeld, 74, oversaw the global fight against terrorism that followed the Sept. 11 attacks. While the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq initially enjoyed broad support, the public's outlook on the conflicts has soured amid sectarian and insurgent violence.

Bush said he met Gates two days before the election at his Crawford, Texas, ranch to discuss the job. Gates ``understands that defeat is not an option in Iraq,'' Bush said.

Prior to his nomination yesterday, Gates was perhaps best remembered in Washington for his role in the 1980s Iran-Contra scandal. As deputy CIA director under Reagan, he was examined by a special prosecutor who declined to bring criminal charges.

Gates was investigated about whether he misled Congress about when he first learned that White House aides were secretly diverting profits of arms sales to Iran to buy weapons for rebels fighting Nicaragua's anti-American government. The arms sales were intended to persuade Iran to help free hostages held by terrorists in Lebanon.

Levin, who voted against Gates when he was nominated for CIA director, said it would be ``premature'' to discuss which way he is leaning now. ``I want to give him a fair and fresh look,'' he said.

Last Updated: November 9, 2006 00:11 EST


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