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Surging currency australia trade deficit { October 30 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/54742/1/.html http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/54742/1/.html Time is GMT + 8 hours Posted: 30 October 2003 1441 hrs Australian treasurer says surging currency caused trade deficit blowout SYDNEY, : Treasurer Peter Costello blamed the rising Australian dollar for a 16 percent blowout in the nation's monthly trade deficit, but said he still believes economic growth will strengthen in 2004. As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave an upbeat assessment of Australia's economic prospects, official figures showed the trade deficit in September rose 310 million Australian dollars (217 million US dollars) to a seasonally-adjusted 2.278 billion dollars. Australia's 22nd consecutive monthly deficit was worse than anticipated as economists had expected an improving world economy to increase demand for Australian commodities. Costello said the Australian dollar, which has surged 25 percent since January, was making Australian exports more expensive for overseas customers. "The world economy has been weak; the exchange rate is probably working against Australian exporters," he told reporters. At the same time, he was confident growth would pick up after a flat June quarter which saw the economy expand by just 0.1 percent. "Compared with all of the other developed economies, Australia continues to perform remarkably well overcoming international weakness and domestic weakness. Growth is expected to strengthen in the course of 2004." He said the economic outlook was positive, fuelled by a US economy that "finally looks like it's turning the corner" and the end of the worst domestic drought on record. For its part, the IMF said the dollar, Australia's "unsustainable" housing bubble and a drop off in overseas demand for exports could all hamper growth. "Downside risks stem from the possibility of further weakness in external demand and/or appreciation of the Australian dollar," the IMF said in its annual assessment of the economy. "A sharp correction in housing prices also could have significant adverse effects across the economy." Describing near- and medium-term prospects as favourable, the IMF said Australia's economy had performed "remarkably well" and was set to grow three percent on 2003, down from 3.6 percent last year. Westpac Bank predicted economic growth in the September quarter would double to 0.2 percent, while National Australia Bank forecast a sharp rise of 1.2 percent. NAB senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said Australia's overall trade position was set for gradual improvement, which would lead to a small positive contribution to growth in the September quarter. "Looking ahead, the anticipated improvement in our major trading partners (economies) in 2004 should see a gradual turnaround in the monthly trade figures in coming quarters," he said. RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Linn Ong said there was unlikely to be any major change in the current account deficit -- which in April reached record levels of more than three billion dollars or more than six percent of Australia's total economic output -- until Australian consumers' taste for expensive imports was curbed. "The monthly trade position and current account will not improve markedly until demand eases and the global picture strengthens further, and this looks unlikely until well into 2004," she said. - AFP

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