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EU voters may deal blow to leaders from blair to Berlusconi

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EU Voters May Deal Blow to Leaders From Blair to Berlusconi

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- European voters may today deal a blow to leaders from U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair to Italy's Silvio Berlusconi in the European Union's first 25-nation election.

Opinion polls show voters will use today's European Parliament balloting, which has no influence on the makeup of national assemblies, to protest everything from Europe's 9.1 percent unemployment rate to the role played by Britain, Italy and Poland in the Iraq occupation.

``Governments in office in general are facing a backlash,'' said John Palmer, political director of the European Policy Centre, a Brussels research institute. ``The election campaigns once again have been the reheated leftovers of national political debates.''

Six weeks after the EU brought its population up to 450 million by expanding into former Soviet territory, the continent- wide rebuke reflects dissatisfaction with an economy that has lagged the U.S. for 11 of the past 12 years.

While elections for the world's largest multinational assembly are a barometer of EU-wide public opinion, only two countries -- Luxembourg and Lithuania -- are holding national elections as well.

In all, 348 million Europeans are eligible to vote for 40,670 candidates from 183 parties running for 732 seats. National representation ranges from Germany with 99 seats, followed by France, Italy and Britain with 78 each, on down to Luxembourg, Estonia and Cyprus with 6 each and Malta with 5. The new parliament's term starts July 20.

Dutch Kickoff

The Netherlands kicked off the voting on Thursday, with initial results compiled by Dutch news agency ANP showing Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democratic Party won the most votes. ANP said the Christian Democrats scored 24.4 percent, just 0.8 percentage points more than the opposition Labor Party.

Britain also voted on Thursday, Ireland on Friday and the Czech Republic on Friday and Saturday, and Latvia and Malta on Saturday. The rest vote today. Results for all 25 countries will be released starting at 6 p.m. today. The European Parliament will announce the projected distribution of seats at 10:45 p.m.

Europe's Conservatives, a loose grouping that includes allies of France's Jacques Chirac and Italy's Berlusconi, hold 295 of the outgoing parliament's 788 seats and are likely to win the most seats, according to forecasts by the European Policy Institutes Network, an EU-wide network of political researchers.

Socialists Second

The group predicts the Socialists, who have 232 delegates in the old parliament including allies of the U.K.'s Blair and Germany's Gerhard Schroeder, will remain the second-biggest party.

Turnout may rise to 52 percent from 49.8 percent in 1999, the first increase since parliament elections started in 1979, according to an EU-sponsored poll of 24,310 eligible voters between May 28 and June 7. The poll, by TNS Sofres/EOS Gallup Europe, was conducted by phone in 20 countries and face-to-face in five. No margin of error was given.

Still, turnout is down from a peak of 63 percent in 1979, giving a boost to protest parties such as the U.K. Independence Party, which wants Britain to pull out of the EU.

Topping the list of voter concerns were the jobless rate and the threat of terrorist attacks, two issues over which the parliament has little influence. Some 51 percent named unemployment as their main preoccupation, with 32 percent citing terrorism and 29 percent economic growth, the TNS Sofres/EOS Gallup Europe poll showed.

Business, Labor Rules

While taxing, spending, social security, policing and defense are the province of national governments, the EU parliament holds sway over business, transport, labor and environmental regulations, can oust the European Commission and helps determine how the bloc spends its 100 billion euros ($122 billion) in regional, farming and development aid.

In the last five-year term, the parliament shaped everyday Europeans' lives by ordering that cigarette packs be smothered with warnings such as ``smoking can cause a slow and painful death,'' mandating compensation as high as 600 euros for bumped airline passengers, enacting labeling requirements for gene- altered foods and forcing banks to reduce fees for cross-border euro transfers and withdrawals from money machines.

Country Before Party

In dictating an estimated 60 percent of the legislation that finds its way to national statute books, the EU parliamentarians often put country over party. German Social and Christian Democrats united in 2001 to veto a takeover code that they feared would make companies such as Volkswagen AG prey to hostile foreign bidders, and Britain's delegation last year watered down proposed curbs on investment banks' stock trading.

Local and regional elections are also taking place in Germany, Italy, Britain, Belgium and Ireland. Luxembourg, the EU's smallest state until Malta's arrival last month, holds a national election that is likely to put Jean-Claude Juncker, Europe's longest-serving prime minister, in office for five more years.

Following are the latest polls for Europe's four biggest countries:

Britain Blair's Labour 26% Conservatives 24% Independence 19%




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