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Oil demand 2025 climb 50perc { May 1 2003 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
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Demand for oil forecast to climb 50% by 2025
By Carola Hoyos in London
Published: May 1 2003 14:38 | Last Updated: May 2 2003 0:10
The US Energy Department on Thursday forecast the world will need more than 50 per cent more oil in 2025 than it does now, throwing into question governments' massive efforts to reduce the world's dependence on oil.
Most of the extra barrels will come from the Middle East, despite US, European and Asian governments' attempts to diversify their suppliers away from the volatile region. Opec's market share is expected to grow, with the cartel more than doubling its current 27m barrels a day production to 56m b/d.
Efforts to move to more environmentally friendly fuels are almost negligible, the department's annual report indicated. Total carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 59 per cent by 2025, while the share of energy that comes from renewable sources - such as wind, water and solar power - will remain unchanged at 8 per cent.
The role of hydrogen was not mentioned in the report. The administration of US President George W. Bush has made the introduction of hydrogen cars on to US roads within the next two decades a priority of its energy policy.
But many analysts and US oil executives, including Lee Raymond, head of ExxonMobil, the world's largest listed oil group, do not expect hydrogen to make a palpable impact.
"Over the past several decades oil has been the world's foremost source of primary energy consumption, and it is expected to remain in that position," the department said.
The biggest growth in oil use will come from the transportation sector and the developing world - especially China, India and South Korea - which is forecast by 2025 to need 86 per cent as much oil as the developing world.
The share of natural gas in total energy consumption is expected to increase from 23 per cent to 28 per cent by 2025 as countries looking to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions turn to the cleaner burning fuel to service their power plants.
Nuclear energy, which is expected to make up only 12 per cent of the world's electricity supply in 2025, will be on the losing side as developed countries continue to decommission reactors.
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